Final Four Breakdown
March 28, 2012
Well, those of us who wanted a big boy Final Four certainly got one. The best teams in the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, and SEC are gonna collide on Saturday. Borum and Jerry zone in on the historic Kentucky-Louisville hate fest, Neff dissects Ohio State vs. Kansas, and I take a look at some championship scenarios:
Louisville vs. Kentucky
By Justin Borum
It looks as if horse racing and Bluegrass music will have to take a backseat this weekend for what could be the most watched event in Kentucky history. For a basketball fan, there’s not much more we can ask for: Two of college basketball’s most storied programs battling for a chance at the Final Four. One of college basketball’s all time great coaches and personalities, Rick Pitino, will select his finest cut Italian suit from his extensive wardrobe in hopes of celebrating teaching his former program a lesson-Godfather style. Coach Cal will apply his sleekest hair gel and give his five most important high school seniors a reminder to watch before he tries to prove talent and coaching are more important than age and player development. I would probably advise those that enjoy horseracing to pay attention to this one.
How Kentucky Wins
Kentucky’s athleticism and defensive pressure are better than anyone in the tournament. Again, I anticipate Kentucky’s game plan to be trying to speed up the game as much as possible. Driving the ball to the bucket, throwing alley-oops to Jones and Davis, feeding off the crowd’s momentum, etc, etc,etc…Same ole thing right? Something tells me that Lamb, Kentucky’s best shooter, might have to be difference maker in this one. Pitino’s had almost a week to figure out how to keep Davis from embarrassing Louisville’s post players, so I think Lamb and Teague are going to have to knock down a few more three’s than usual. I think the main key for Kentucky is to get an early lead and get some quality rest minutes in the first half for Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist to finish each half strong.
How Louisville Wins
The Wildcats' trademark this year has been their enormous offensive spurts. There is a critical moment (usually in the latter part of the first half) where the momentum almost completely eliminates their opponent’s chances. Louisville is great defensively so they’ll have the benefit of being able to run with them. However, their offense has been average, at best, this season. Their PG, Siva, will have to play the game of his life for the Cardinals to have a chance. He’s going to have to score the ball, but more importantly, he’s going to have to control the pace and speed of the game and try to find a way to get a least something out of their frontcourt offensively. Kentucky has the fewest team weaknesses of any team in a long time and their lone weakness, lack of depth, has been extremely difficult for teams to expose in this tournament. Davis showed signs of an injury late in the Baylor game, so these keys to success are contingent on him being full-speed.
Keys to an upset:
5) Siva must control the game and be the MVP
4) Louisville’s pump fakes or moon-balls (over Davis’ length) must work in the post
3) Play some zone and force Lamb to beat you. Eliminate MKG’s and Teague’s ability to penetrate and score/dish
2) Find a way to get them in foul trouble
1) BE THE MOST PHYSICAL TEAM ON THE COURT
My Prediction:
Assuming Davis is healthy, I think we’ll see a similar result in this one as we did against Baylor. Louisville is playing great now, but I just don’t think they have nearly enough offensive fire power to score enough to keep up. I know it's tourney time and it really doesn’t matter that much now, but I’ve seen them play awful a few times. I think the two best teams in the country are Kentucky and Ohio State.
Kentucky wins by 10.
West Region
By Jerry Rogers
How Louisville Wins:
By this time everyone should be inundated with the hoopla surrounding this Final Four game that doubles as a rivalry game. It is a Bluegrass battle that puts Louisville up against Kentucky in the first interstate game in the Final Four since 1962. Oh that isn’t the only thing fueling this rivalry. Rick Pitino coached Kentucky for eight seasons, and led the team to three Final Fours with one national championship in 1996. Many Wildcats have never forgiven Pitino for leaving and that amplifies the magnitude of this matchup.
There is little doubt that Kentucky is the clear favorite to win the national championship. Anything less will be a failure for a Kentucky team who ran through their competition this season. Louisville is a +8.5 point underdog. They aren’t supposed to be in this game. The only person outside of the state of Kentucky who saw this coming was… me. I did make the Louisville pick in the Sweet 16 preview article. In order to have a shot at winning this game, Louisville needs to play loose and believe in their coach/system.
Pitino needs to instill confidence in his team. He can’t let his squad get caught up in the underdog role or talk of Kentucky as inevitable champions. Pitino needs his team to believe that they are supposed to be here. The last three teams to win the Big East tournament have made the Final Four. West Virginia did it in 2010, Connecticut in 2011, and Louisville this season. Pitino needs to hammer home this point in order to make his team believe they have a chance to win this game. Kentucky is not unbeatable. They have lost this season to teams who will be sitting at home watching this game.
Louisville’s biggest advantage in this game is their ability to throw a lot of different looks at its opponents. Earlier in the season Louisville was playing a defensive style of basketball to weather some injury problems they were having. Since they opened up their game in the Big East tournament, they have been undefeated and hold a better record than Kentucky over the past few weeks. Peyton Siva and Chane Behanan need to consistently contribute offensively, and Louisville needs to throw something different at Kentucky that they haven’t seen all season. I am not sure what that might be, but I am pretty sure Pitino has something up his sleeve. Louisville not only needs to believe they can win this game; they have to come out and play their best game of the year.
How Louisville Loses:
The cold, hard truth remains that if Louisville plays their best game of the year, it still might not be enough against an incredibly talented Kentucky team. If Louisville falters for any stretch of the game, Kentucky has the ability to blow the game wide open. Kentucky is a physically tougher team than Louisville, and if they begin to exert their will physically, this game will get out of hand early. Louisville loses this game if they don’t play solid defensively and have a poor shooting day from the field. Sadly, Louisville could also play a fantastic game and still lose to this very talented Kentucky team.
What Will Actually Happen:
I believe that Pitino will have his team amped up for this game to the point where they jump out to an early lead on Kentucky. However, I see Kentucky making a first-half run to regain a modest 4 to 5 point lead. The score will be close at half with Kentucky leading by no more than 6 points. Both teams will go into the locker room playing a good first half of basketball and believing they can win the game.
I see the second half starting out with both teams exchanging baskets. Louisville will make a few clutch threes and cut the lead to 2 or 3 points with about 10 minutes to go in the game. It is at this point that Kentucky will make their run to put away Louisville. Kentucky creates a few turnovers and makes some easy buckets to extend the lead to 8 or 10 points. From this point on Kentucky cruises to a win that should hover right around the Vegas line of Louisville +8.5. In the end, Kentucky heads to the championship, but Louisville puts up a solid effort for 75% of the game. They just don’t have the depth or physical ability to hang with Kentucky for the full 40 minutes.
Midwest
By Jason Neff
What Kansas needs to do to win:
Kansas will win this game if they come out with an aggressive defense. Their guard Taylor is so quick with the ball in transition that he has to have NBA scouts foaming at the mouth. When the Jayhawks are aggressive on defense that leads to steals and fast break points. The Buckeyes can run themselves, but this Jayhawk team looks as if they just love it. When Taylor would come up with a steal it looked as if Kansas players were pushing each other out of the way to run along with him. They just look like they really enjoy it. I think they will also need to hit a little more 3's than usual. They shot 4-13 from 3-point land versus North Carolina, which is about their average as far as attempts and percentage (they shot about 30% for the year). However, to win they will need to take advantage of the Buckeyes defense from beyond the arc. They don't have to shoot like a Florida Gators team, but they do need to take a few more 3's because they will be there. I think they will win if they focus their defense on Thomas, too. He doesn't like players swiping at the ball, and is a better scorer than most people know about. He is actually the Buckeyes secret weapon on offense. When people focus on Sullinger, Thomas is right there waiting for points. Sullinger will get his points regardless of who you put on him. So throw the defensive player on someone else and it will disrupt their offense. So aggressive defense, transition points, a few more 3's, and keying on Thomas will win this game for the Jayhawks.
How Kansas will lose:
Kansas will lose this game if they don't come out aggressive. If they're not aggressive this effects the transition game (their advantage over the Buckeyes). If they try to push the ball at the wrong times (not from steals especially) and force it, then they will turn the ball over. The Buckeyes aren't used to being run on, but with Craft lurking around on the floor, there could be a lot of turnovers that turn into Ohio State points instead of for Kansas. They will also lose this game if they don't take Sullinger out of the game. They could do this by making him play hard defense, going at him and getting him into foul trouble, or just bodying him up on both ends of the court. They will lose if they just let him play his game because the rest of the team feeds off of Sullinger, which is why the game at halftime with Syracuse was tied with him on the bench. So lack of aggressive defense, transition turnovers, and not taking out Sullinger equals a loss for Kansas.
Actual outcome:
I think Kansas is done on Saturday. Their secret weapon has been their zone defense. It got them out of a jam with Purdue and allowed them to roll over North Carolina. However, the Buckeyes can play offense against the zone. They will either get to the line or shoot you out of it. Just look at what they did versus Syracuse's zone: 31-42 from the free throw line (not all versus zone, but most) and shot 43% from the field. Even if Kansas plays zone defense way better than Syracuse, the Buckeyes will not panic in the situation, and they will come out of it okay. Another reason Kansas won't win is the Buckeyes will come out on fire and pumped up for their revenge loss against the Jayhawks from early in the year. That game was at Kansas and Ohio State was missing Sullinger. I think Sullinger comes into this game like a big brother, whose little brother just got beat up by a bully, and we all know what happens to bullies (they're really scared and back down, if you don't know). I also think that Craft will be too much of a disruption for the Jayhawks backcourt. He is just all over the place and is like a little gnat.
Ohio State
By Steve Strange
Neff already brilliantly dissected the Ohio State-Kansas game, and I agree with everything he said. So I'm going to focus all of my attention on Ohio State vs. Kentucky AND Ohio State vs. Louisville...
How Ohio State Wins the Championship
The Buckeyes would be an underdog in my eyes either way. That Louisville-Kentucky game represents such pure hatrid... ESPN's Pat Forde - who lives in Kentucky - called it the biggest sporting event in the history of the state. This can work to Ohio State's advantage. Whichever team wins will feel like they already won a championship. Just four problems with that mindset: Deshaun Thomas, Jared Sullinger, Aaron Craft, and William Buford.
If Ohio State plays Kentucky, I think they dump it to Sullinger. Go to your most talented player against the most talented team in the country. Fight fire with fire. And I think Sullinger's body control around the basket could get Anthony Davis and the other bigs in foul trouble.
If Ohio State plays Louisville it's all about Aaron Craft knifing the press. We all know how Pitino loves to press, but Craft is excellent at handling the basketball. Pitino has been stubborn in sticking to the press no matter what in the past, and Craft's good enough to make the Cardinals pay.
How Ohio State Loses the Championship
Against Kentucky the Buckeyes run the same risk Indiana and Baylor suffered: Just being completely overwhelmed by the Wildcats shear across-the-board talent. NBATV had an awesome Larry Bird "Top 50 Plays" hour show for his birthday last week. On it Magic Johnson talked about how the 84 Celtics beat his Lakers in the championship by turning the series into a dogfight. Magic said the Lakers focused more on fighting than playing basketball. Even though the Lakers were more talented Bird's Celtics won in 7. Why don't team's get ugly against Cal and company? You're not going to outscore the Wildcats. You're not going to play prettier than Kentucky. I don't care how old you are, or about sportsmanship or any of that. When you get hit in the face on every dunk and layup, that stays in your head. And it affects your play and decision-making. Ohio State needs to rough up the Wildcats, or John Calipari is going to be cutting down the net.
Louisville has a way of mucking up every game. Which means in order to beat the Cardinals unexpected players need to step up. Cue Lenzelle Smith Jr. for the Buckeyes. Smith Jr. had a surprising 18 points against Syracuse, but is only averaging 6.7 points on the season.
What Will Actually Happen
Once again, I obviously agree with Neff, and think Ohio State will beat Kansas. In the other game, I think Louisville (a +8.5 underdog) upsets Kentucky. I just feel Pitino will have something up his sleeve for that one. And then I think Louisville will play great defense, take away everything Ohio State does great, and beat the Buckeyes. That's what Louisville seems to do on the Rick Pitino Redemption Tour.
To discuss the Final Four click here...
Well, those of us who wanted a big boy Final Four certainly got one. The best teams in the Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, and SEC are gonna collide on Saturday. Borum and Jerry zone in on the historic Kentucky-Louisville hate fest, Neff dissects Ohio State vs. Kansas, and I take a look at some championship scenarios:
Louisville vs. Kentucky
By Justin Borum
It looks as if horse racing and Bluegrass music will have to take a backseat this weekend for what could be the most watched event in Kentucky history. For a basketball fan, there’s not much more we can ask for: Two of college basketball’s most storied programs battling for a chance at the Final Four. One of college basketball’s all time great coaches and personalities, Rick Pitino, will select his finest cut Italian suit from his extensive wardrobe in hopes of celebrating teaching his former program a lesson-Godfather style. Coach Cal will apply his sleekest hair gel and give his five most important high school seniors a reminder to watch before he tries to prove talent and coaching are more important than age and player development. I would probably advise those that enjoy horseracing to pay attention to this one.
How Kentucky Wins
Kentucky’s athleticism and defensive pressure are better than anyone in the tournament. Again, I anticipate Kentucky’s game plan to be trying to speed up the game as much as possible. Driving the ball to the bucket, throwing alley-oops to Jones and Davis, feeding off the crowd’s momentum, etc, etc,etc…Same ole thing right? Something tells me that Lamb, Kentucky’s best shooter, might have to be difference maker in this one. Pitino’s had almost a week to figure out how to keep Davis from embarrassing Louisville’s post players, so I think Lamb and Teague are going to have to knock down a few more three’s than usual. I think the main key for Kentucky is to get an early lead and get some quality rest minutes in the first half for Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist to finish each half strong.
How Louisville Wins
The Wildcats' trademark this year has been their enormous offensive spurts. There is a critical moment (usually in the latter part of the first half) where the momentum almost completely eliminates their opponent’s chances. Louisville is great defensively so they’ll have the benefit of being able to run with them. However, their offense has been average, at best, this season. Their PG, Siva, will have to play the game of his life for the Cardinals to have a chance. He’s going to have to score the ball, but more importantly, he’s going to have to control the pace and speed of the game and try to find a way to get a least something out of their frontcourt offensively. Kentucky has the fewest team weaknesses of any team in a long time and their lone weakness, lack of depth, has been extremely difficult for teams to expose in this tournament. Davis showed signs of an injury late in the Baylor game, so these keys to success are contingent on him being full-speed.
Keys to an upset:
5) Siva must control the game and be the MVP
4) Louisville’s pump fakes or moon-balls (over Davis’ length) must work in the post
3) Play some zone and force Lamb to beat you. Eliminate MKG’s and Teague’s ability to penetrate and score/dish
2) Find a way to get them in foul trouble
1) BE THE MOST PHYSICAL TEAM ON THE COURT
My Prediction:
Assuming Davis is healthy, I think we’ll see a similar result in this one as we did against Baylor. Louisville is playing great now, but I just don’t think they have nearly enough offensive fire power to score enough to keep up. I know it's tourney time and it really doesn’t matter that much now, but I’ve seen them play awful a few times. I think the two best teams in the country are Kentucky and Ohio State.
Kentucky wins by 10.
West Region
By Jerry Rogers
How Louisville Wins:
By this time everyone should be inundated with the hoopla surrounding this Final Four game that doubles as a rivalry game. It is a Bluegrass battle that puts Louisville up against Kentucky in the first interstate game in the Final Four since 1962. Oh that isn’t the only thing fueling this rivalry. Rick Pitino coached Kentucky for eight seasons, and led the team to three Final Fours with one national championship in 1996. Many Wildcats have never forgiven Pitino for leaving and that amplifies the magnitude of this matchup.
There is little doubt that Kentucky is the clear favorite to win the national championship. Anything less will be a failure for a Kentucky team who ran through their competition this season. Louisville is a +8.5 point underdog. They aren’t supposed to be in this game. The only person outside of the state of Kentucky who saw this coming was… me. I did make the Louisville pick in the Sweet 16 preview article. In order to have a shot at winning this game, Louisville needs to play loose and believe in their coach/system.
Pitino needs to instill confidence in his team. He can’t let his squad get caught up in the underdog role or talk of Kentucky as inevitable champions. Pitino needs his team to believe that they are supposed to be here. The last three teams to win the Big East tournament have made the Final Four. West Virginia did it in 2010, Connecticut in 2011, and Louisville this season. Pitino needs to hammer home this point in order to make his team believe they have a chance to win this game. Kentucky is not unbeatable. They have lost this season to teams who will be sitting at home watching this game.
Louisville’s biggest advantage in this game is their ability to throw a lot of different looks at its opponents. Earlier in the season Louisville was playing a defensive style of basketball to weather some injury problems they were having. Since they opened up their game in the Big East tournament, they have been undefeated and hold a better record than Kentucky over the past few weeks. Peyton Siva and Chane Behanan need to consistently contribute offensively, and Louisville needs to throw something different at Kentucky that they haven’t seen all season. I am not sure what that might be, but I am pretty sure Pitino has something up his sleeve. Louisville not only needs to believe they can win this game; they have to come out and play their best game of the year.
How Louisville Loses:
The cold, hard truth remains that if Louisville plays their best game of the year, it still might not be enough against an incredibly talented Kentucky team. If Louisville falters for any stretch of the game, Kentucky has the ability to blow the game wide open. Kentucky is a physically tougher team than Louisville, and if they begin to exert their will physically, this game will get out of hand early. Louisville loses this game if they don’t play solid defensively and have a poor shooting day from the field. Sadly, Louisville could also play a fantastic game and still lose to this very talented Kentucky team.
What Will Actually Happen:
I believe that Pitino will have his team amped up for this game to the point where they jump out to an early lead on Kentucky. However, I see Kentucky making a first-half run to regain a modest 4 to 5 point lead. The score will be close at half with Kentucky leading by no more than 6 points. Both teams will go into the locker room playing a good first half of basketball and believing they can win the game.
I see the second half starting out with both teams exchanging baskets. Louisville will make a few clutch threes and cut the lead to 2 or 3 points with about 10 minutes to go in the game. It is at this point that Kentucky will make their run to put away Louisville. Kentucky creates a few turnovers and makes some easy buckets to extend the lead to 8 or 10 points. From this point on Kentucky cruises to a win that should hover right around the Vegas line of Louisville +8.5. In the end, Kentucky heads to the championship, but Louisville puts up a solid effort for 75% of the game. They just don’t have the depth or physical ability to hang with Kentucky for the full 40 minutes.
Midwest
By Jason Neff
What Kansas needs to do to win:
Kansas will win this game if they come out with an aggressive defense. Their guard Taylor is so quick with the ball in transition that he has to have NBA scouts foaming at the mouth. When the Jayhawks are aggressive on defense that leads to steals and fast break points. The Buckeyes can run themselves, but this Jayhawk team looks as if they just love it. When Taylor would come up with a steal it looked as if Kansas players were pushing each other out of the way to run along with him. They just look like they really enjoy it. I think they will also need to hit a little more 3's than usual. They shot 4-13 from 3-point land versus North Carolina, which is about their average as far as attempts and percentage (they shot about 30% for the year). However, to win they will need to take advantage of the Buckeyes defense from beyond the arc. They don't have to shoot like a Florida Gators team, but they do need to take a few more 3's because they will be there. I think they will win if they focus their defense on Thomas, too. He doesn't like players swiping at the ball, and is a better scorer than most people know about. He is actually the Buckeyes secret weapon on offense. When people focus on Sullinger, Thomas is right there waiting for points. Sullinger will get his points regardless of who you put on him. So throw the defensive player on someone else and it will disrupt their offense. So aggressive defense, transition points, a few more 3's, and keying on Thomas will win this game for the Jayhawks.
How Kansas will lose:
Kansas will lose this game if they don't come out aggressive. If they're not aggressive this effects the transition game (their advantage over the Buckeyes). If they try to push the ball at the wrong times (not from steals especially) and force it, then they will turn the ball over. The Buckeyes aren't used to being run on, but with Craft lurking around on the floor, there could be a lot of turnovers that turn into Ohio State points instead of for Kansas. They will also lose this game if they don't take Sullinger out of the game. They could do this by making him play hard defense, going at him and getting him into foul trouble, or just bodying him up on both ends of the court. They will lose if they just let him play his game because the rest of the team feeds off of Sullinger, which is why the game at halftime with Syracuse was tied with him on the bench. So lack of aggressive defense, transition turnovers, and not taking out Sullinger equals a loss for Kansas.
Actual outcome:
I think Kansas is done on Saturday. Their secret weapon has been their zone defense. It got them out of a jam with Purdue and allowed them to roll over North Carolina. However, the Buckeyes can play offense against the zone. They will either get to the line or shoot you out of it. Just look at what they did versus Syracuse's zone: 31-42 from the free throw line (not all versus zone, but most) and shot 43% from the field. Even if Kansas plays zone defense way better than Syracuse, the Buckeyes will not panic in the situation, and they will come out of it okay. Another reason Kansas won't win is the Buckeyes will come out on fire and pumped up for their revenge loss against the Jayhawks from early in the year. That game was at Kansas and Ohio State was missing Sullinger. I think Sullinger comes into this game like a big brother, whose little brother just got beat up by a bully, and we all know what happens to bullies (they're really scared and back down, if you don't know). I also think that Craft will be too much of a disruption for the Jayhawks backcourt. He is just all over the place and is like a little gnat.
Ohio State
By Steve Strange
Neff already brilliantly dissected the Ohio State-Kansas game, and I agree with everything he said. So I'm going to focus all of my attention on Ohio State vs. Kentucky AND Ohio State vs. Louisville...
How Ohio State Wins the Championship
The Buckeyes would be an underdog in my eyes either way. That Louisville-Kentucky game represents such pure hatrid... ESPN's Pat Forde - who lives in Kentucky - called it the biggest sporting event in the history of the state. This can work to Ohio State's advantage. Whichever team wins will feel like they already won a championship. Just four problems with that mindset: Deshaun Thomas, Jared Sullinger, Aaron Craft, and William Buford.
If Ohio State plays Kentucky, I think they dump it to Sullinger. Go to your most talented player against the most talented team in the country. Fight fire with fire. And I think Sullinger's body control around the basket could get Anthony Davis and the other bigs in foul trouble.
If Ohio State plays Louisville it's all about Aaron Craft knifing the press. We all know how Pitino loves to press, but Craft is excellent at handling the basketball. Pitino has been stubborn in sticking to the press no matter what in the past, and Craft's good enough to make the Cardinals pay.
How Ohio State Loses the Championship
Against Kentucky the Buckeyes run the same risk Indiana and Baylor suffered: Just being completely overwhelmed by the Wildcats shear across-the-board talent. NBATV had an awesome Larry Bird "Top 50 Plays" hour show for his birthday last week. On it Magic Johnson talked about how the 84 Celtics beat his Lakers in the championship by turning the series into a dogfight. Magic said the Lakers focused more on fighting than playing basketball. Even though the Lakers were more talented Bird's Celtics won in 7. Why don't team's get ugly against Cal and company? You're not going to outscore the Wildcats. You're not going to play prettier than Kentucky. I don't care how old you are, or about sportsmanship or any of that. When you get hit in the face on every dunk and layup, that stays in your head. And it affects your play and decision-making. Ohio State needs to rough up the Wildcats, or John Calipari is going to be cutting down the net.
Louisville has a way of mucking up every game. Which means in order to beat the Cardinals unexpected players need to step up. Cue Lenzelle Smith Jr. for the Buckeyes. Smith Jr. had a surprising 18 points against Syracuse, but is only averaging 6.7 points on the season.
What Will Actually Happen
Once again, I obviously agree with Neff, and think Ohio State will beat Kansas. In the other game, I think Louisville (a +8.5 underdog) upsets Kentucky. I just feel Pitino will have something up his sleeve for that one. And then I think Louisville will play great defense, take away everything Ohio State does great, and beat the Buckeyes. That's what Louisville seems to do on the Rick Pitino Redemption Tour.
To discuss the Final Four click here...
Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Previews
March 21, 2012
The Sweet 16 and Elite 8... time for the meat of the greatest sports event of the year. There're four regions so we have four different mindsets and perspectives. Borum, Jerry, Neff, and I share our thoughts on how the next four nights are gonna play out:
The East
By Steve Strange
1 Syracuse vs. 4 Wisconsin in Boston (at 7:15pm on CBS)
How They Got Here:
Syracuse mowed through the Big East, only losing one game all regular season. They somehow either blocked out the Bernie Fine disgrace, or used it as motivation? Things were great until 12 days ago. The Cuse got knocked out of the Big East Tourney Semifinals, lost Fab Melo's eligibility, and flirted with being the first ever one seed to lose to a 16. The Orange seemed to rediscover their groove against Kansas State in Round 3, coasting through the second half to a double-digit victory.
Wisconsin did what Wisconsin does. The Badgers grinded through the Big Ten, and saved their best basketball for the tournament. The Wisky/Vanderbilt game on Saturday was some of the purest basketball you'll ever see. Wisconsin plays so fundamentally sound and hard simultaneously it's almost scary.
My Prediction:
I saw this line at Syracuse -5 on Sunday night. It's now down to Syracuse -3.5 as of Tuesday evening, which means I'm not alone in liking Wisconsin in this game. I think Syracuse is emotionally spent, and has already peaked this season. I think Syracuse is ripe to be upset... Kansas State just wasn't the right team for the job because they couldn't hit jumpshots. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is an extremely smooth shooting team. Even the big men (like 6-10 Jared Berggren, who shoots .356 behind the arc) can knock em down. Combine that with Syracuse's rebounding problems, and I like Wisconsin. I'll take the Badgers to grind one out by 5.
6 Cincinnati vs. 2 Ohio State in Boston (at 9:45pm on CBS)
How They Got Here:
Cincy had the infamous brawl with Xavier on December 10. After the game Coach Mick Cronin made every Bearcat take off their jersey, and told them they had to earn their way back on the team. It was a classic case of a coach taking control of his team. The Bearcats responded by winning 10 of their next 11. The Bearcats prepared for the neutral courts of tournament play by going 5-4 on the road in Big East play. They shocked the entire conference and college basketball fans across America by making the Big East Tournament Finals, only to lose to Louisville. The Bearcats bounced back to jump out to an ugly 16-2 lead on Texas the first 12 minutes of their Round 2 game. The Bearcats survived a spirited Texas comeback to win 65-59. In Round 3's final game, Cincy and FSU traded punches into the wee hours of Sunday night. Cincy hung on to pull out the 62-56 upset.
Ohio State was considered a front runner to win it all since the start of the season, but the Buckeyes proved vulnerable in February losing home games to Michigan State and Wisconsin. Ohio State snapped into a different mode in the Big Ten Tournament, though, slapping around Purdue and Michigan before losing 68-64 to Michigan State in one of the best college basketball games ever played. Ohio State coasted into Round 3, where they outlasted a Gonzaga team who had humiliated WVU two nights before.
My Prediction:
Cincy's capable of just about anything. Rick Pitino's right: Cincy and Louisville are brothers. Cronin is a former assistant to Pitino, and coach's like it. Cincy wins games in the same hideous fashion Louisville does. But Ohio State... they might be the best team in the country right now. Aaron Craft might have played his best game as a Buckeye against Gonzaga, DeShaun Thomas is blowing up, Jared Sullinger's hittin' three's... no way I would even dream of going against OSU right now. Give me the Buckeyes by 10.
Elite 8 Matchup: 2 Ohio State vs. 4 Wisconsin (on Saturday)
Big Ten Power... 9-2 through the first three rounds. If Purdue would have hung on against Kansas - and the conference would have been 10-1 - I would have argued that it was the most impressive conference domination in the history of the tournament (considering the parity that now exists in today's college hoops). Wisconsin plays with a lot of heart, and Bo Ryan is one of the most underrated coaches in all of sports, but Ohio State looks great. Give me the Buckeyes by six or seven in this one...
West: Two Contrasting Styles
By Jerry Rogers
The two games slated in this region could not be any more different. The Michigan State/Louisville game will most likely be a defensive battle whereas the Florida/Marquette game will be a contest to see who can run up and down the court more often. This region offers you the best of both worlds. If you want a defense battle, we have that. Want an offensive shootout, we have that too! I cannot wait to watch this electrifying region.
Michigan State vs. Louisville
Both teams faced stiff competition in the round of 32, but the higher seeds prevailed to provide us with a tremendous defensive battle. The backcourts will be the highlight on the court, but there will also be an intriguing matchup happening off the court. Both of these teams are led by extraordinarily talented coaches. This is Tom Izzo’s fourth number one seed in the tournament. His previous three teams made it to the Final Four. I know what you are thinking, “Well let’s just pencil in the Spartans to beat Louisville then.” Let’s look at the flip side as well. Rick Pitino has never lost a regional semifinal matchup in nine tries. At Louisville alone he is 3-0 in Sweet 16 games. Let’s also mention that Louisville has an extra day in Phoenix to practice due to their travel schedule. Pitino has made a career out of taking advantage of the extra preparation days in order to have his team primed for anything that will be thrown at them.
There is no doubt that the coaching matchup will be amazing, but Michigan State does hold one advantage—Draymond Green. This man makes everyone around him better and has been a man amongst boys while on the court. Since 1985, he has more points (40), rebounds (20), and assists (16) than any other player in his first two games of an NCAA tournament. If Louisville can limit his ability to get open in the high post and challenge Green’s shots, they have a chance. Louisville has had their back against the wall since the Big East tournament, and they responded by winning that title. I wouldn’t count them out just yet.
Odds to win this game: Michigan State 55% - Louisville 45%
My pick: Michigan State is the better team, but I like the hot hand in Louisville for this game.
Marquette vs. Florida
Marquette was tested by Murray State while Florida put on a shooting performance against Norfolk State in the round of 32. Marquette showed some poise and ability to comeback on a Murray State team that led most of the game. A second half run with 8 minutes to go really changed the tide of the game. Florida got out of the gate quick and routed a Norfolk State team that forgot where the hoop was for most of the game. Those wins set the stage for an offensive battle that will greatly contrast the other regional semifinal.
Marquette boasts two players who have the ability to take over this game. Darius Johnson-Odom is a point machine and has scored in double figures in 33 of the Golden Eagles 34 games this season. The senior guard and All-Big East First Team selection has been a dependable source of leadership all season. Jae Crowder is another senior who has tremendous ability and the hardware to prove it. Crowder is the Big East Player of the Year and has shown he can up his level of play when needed. After trailing at the half to Murray State, Crowder chipped in 12 points, 7 rebounds, and blocked 2 shots down the stretch to help secure the Marquette win. Florida should be weary of these two threats, but the Gators have the ability to get up and down the floor with the best of them. Against Norfolk State, Florida proved that they can shoot with any team in the country. When this team is hitting their shots, they are dangerous. Florida struggled at times to consistently hit their shots, and that is why they are a 7 seed. However, that can be thrown out the window right now because the Gators are hitting on all cylinders. The beauty of a tournament is that the hot team can be dangerous despite an inconsistent season. The key will be which Florida team shows up to shoot the ball.
Odds to win the game: Marquette 60% - Florida 40%
My pick: Marquette
Possible Elite Eight Matchup: If my picks hold true, we will see the rubber match between Louisville and Marquette. Each team has beat the other team once this year, but Louisville looked pretty convincing in their recent win against Marquette in the Big East tournament. I think Louisville has opened up their game and taken it to the next level in postseason play, including the Big East tournament. Marquette has showed some weaknesses against BYU and Murray State. If Louisville gets past a very talented Michigan State team, I like their chances to make it to the Final Four. Make sure to tune into the games on Thursday at 7:47 PM and 10:17 PM to see two amazing basketball games.
THE SOUTH
By Justin Borum
What a privilege and honor it’s been the last few weeks to watch college sports in its purest form. First, I have to commend Jerry’s Lehigh Mountain Hawks on a huge upset over Duke. I’m not exactly sure it was an upset because at no point did it seem like Duke had an answer for McCollum. What’s great about this website is you have people like Jerry informing us about players like this kid who we otherwise might not hear about until he rips Duke’s backcourt for 30 points. I was really looking forward to picking those guys over Baylor. Most readers know I’ve thought Kentucky has been the best team in the nation since they handed Florida their worst loss under Donovan’s tenure. I’m not a Wildcat fan by any means, but I think the one-and-done approach is going to work this year because of their personnel.
Kentucky vs. Indiana
Arguably the most anticipated rematch of the postseason (for obvious reasons), I disagree with Jay Williams and others that we’ll see a blow-out. Although Kentucky's only lost twice this year, the Hoosiers have more of a chance than anyone because they’re one of the two teams that have showed us Kentucky’s vulnerability. In a tournament with so many great coaches and organizational scouting programs, you’d think there might be a few more teams out there that have the formula to knock off Kentucky. I read that programs such as Michigan State, North Carolina, and Florida have a full-time staff of five or more seasoned coaches that cut up film, talk to other coaches, and diagnose every team throughout the season in case they meet them in March. From what I understand, this staff isn’t always necessarily on the floor on game days. Although Indiana accomplished the seemingly impossible back in December, in order to do it again, they’ll have to be even better and much more lucky. It’s obvious by watching them play, Kentucky is much more coherent offensively and players have seemed to assume their roles within Calipari’s system. Most analysts say Teague, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Jones have joined Davis and developed into 2012 NBA lottery picks.
Keys for a monumental upset over Kentucky:
Drive the ball directly at Davis without worrying about getting charges--Anthony Davis stayed in foul trouble in the earlier match. In fact, he only played a little over 20 minutes. Zeller’s number one goal should be to keep him sitting on the bench.
Shoot and make as many three’s as possible--There was a spurt in the first contest where Indiana reeled off seven straight in a course of only about eight minutes. They obviously have to shoot a ridiculous percentage again from downtown to win.
Eliminate Jones and Davis’ ability to accumulate offensive rebounds--Both of these guys have pretty good jump shots; however, they make their living 3-5 feet from the basket on putbacks, dunks, and junk points. Terrence Jones was a surprising no-show in the first game.
Keep the crowd from becoming a big factor--Kentucky has led the nation in attendance for as far back as I can remember. Their fans also travel better than any team in country. Plan on seeing nothing but a sea of blue in Atlanta.
Prediction: Kentucky controls the game and sustains Indiana’s few drives. Kentucky wins by 6.
Xavier vs. Baylor
Again, I think Lehigh was a better team than Xavier. I think you’re going to see two different styles clash in this one. During the course of this tournament, my buddies and I have debated point guard play. In my opinion, a team can win a championship with role players at the 2-5 positions, but a quality point guard is a MUST. There have been some excellent guards in this tournament, but Xavier’s Holloway has to be one of the best. He makes unbelievable decisions with the basketball and he is willing to take on any role to ensure his team’s success. I was also impressed with their offense sets and defensive intensity. I never thought that Baylor was anywhere close to being as good as Missouri in the Big 12, but the last few games have changed my mind. The thing that stands out the most about the Bears is their transition game and how athletic they are at every position---Their starting five is probably the quickest and most athletic in the entire tournament.
Keys to Xavier pulling off the upset:
Control the pace of the game--Don’t be surprised if Xavier coach Chris Mack opts to slow things down. The last thing the Musketeers or any team want to do is attempt to run the court with Baylor. I foresee them walking the ball down the court, using up the shot clock and trying to get a quality shot for Holloway or an inside feed to Kenny Frease.
Confuse Baylor defensively—Man-to-Man might not be the best or only alternative for Xavier to win. I’d like to see them alternate with pressure and multiple zone looks. If Vandy coach Kevin Stallings had it to do over again, he would use the same approach. The last 4 minutes of the Vandy-Wisconsin game, he switched to a zone and totally confused the Badgers…Too little too late.
Get back in transition defense--The only member of Xavier's offensive unit I would allow to crash the offensive glass is Frease, and I would even consider him getting his butt back also. Get back, find a guy, contest a shot, or take a charge.
Prediction: Baylor soundly defeats Xavier by 10
Potential Elite 8 Matchup: Baylor vs. Kentucky
Keeping things real simple here: Kentucky's the best team in the country, and they'll be tasting the Final Four. Baylor and Kentucky will fly up and down the court, and break a few lights on the scoreboard. It will be entertaining... Going with Kentucky by at least 10.
Breakdown of the Midwest
By Jason Neff
Matchups
Ohio University vs. North Carolina
Kansas vs. North Carolina State
I will start with the most surprising team in the NCAA tournament: the Bobcats of Ohio University - not to be confused with The Ohio State University. The Bobcats are coming out of one of the weakest conferences in basketball (not usually weak, but this year they are). I guess that is the exciting part of it, nobody thought a team from the MAC would last this long, not even me and I root for OU (one of the two MAC schools I attended in college). I haven't been more pumped for them since the "Shaq of the Mac," Gary Trent played his final year with the Bobcats and made the tourney. They are by far the most surprising and impressive team in the tourney if you consider that they beat a great Michigan team and a solid control team like South Florida. They have their backs against the wall with North Carolina, though. The Bobcats will be overmatched on every level. North Carolina has the key injury, however, it won't come into play here, especially since they have Henson back. North Carolina has had an easy road to get to this point. They played Vermont and Creighton. If you take both of these teams and let them play North Carolina 5 times each, North Carolina will lose maybe once. I look for the Bobcats to come out swinging (they have to) and take an early lead and maybe catch the Tar Heels off guard for the first 8 minutes of play. Then, the big dogs will wake up and reality will set in for each team. North Carolina will realize how much of a mismatch they have and Ohio University will realize they are just undersized and not athletic enough to compete with them. The Tar Heels will go into halftime with a nice lead before blowing it open in the second half. Obviously, I am looking for the exact opposite situation here, but to be fair Ohio University has come a long way and it is just time to go home. Don't get me wrong, they will play with a lot of heart and should keep their heads held high for the run that they made, but North Carolina will be too strong for them to overcome.
In Game 2, we have a top tier team in Kansas versus a mid-level ACC team in North Carolina State. I am kicking myself right now because I didn't see the Wolfpack in this at all. When I look at their season, they only have two head-scratching losses (Stanford and Georgia Tech), and some would argue the Georgia Tech loss was a good loss (they were much better when Rice was playing). The Stanford loss is definitely not an argument, they are bad and from a bad conference but we can allow one excuse. Almost every other loss has come from a team that is in the Sweet 16 (North Carolina, Indiana, Syracuse), teams that were one game away from it (Vanderbilt and Florida St.) or just tough conference games (Duke, Clemson, and Virginia). Yeah I know, Virginia, but they were playing great at the time. On to the other side with Kansas. The Jayhawks pretty much dominated all season. They drew a little luck when they played Ohio State with Sullinger out, and played tough games with Baylor, Missouri, and Kansas St. They do, however, have a couple losses at home (Davidson and Duke) that brings this question to mind, "Do the Jayhawks overlook this game for North Carolina?" Obviously, they can let their guard down, just like they did versus Purdue, but this time will they come back from it? I say no. They have the talent and length to dominate this game, but I don't think they will. And if you let a team who has played a bunch of battles with the same type of teams in it, they will eventually take you down. This will be a very hard-fought game that will come down to the wire and I am looking for the Wolfpack to take advantage of a learning year (with their schedule) that will set them up for the win.
Elite 8 game of the Midwest
North Carolina versus North Carolina State
Can NC State, the mid-level ACC team take out North Carolina, the champs of the ACC? Yes they can. Come on, it is the NCAA Tourney folks. This is where upsets happen, where dreams are made, and where dreams are destroyed. This is the round when coaches, teams, fans, parents, and everybody else associated with the school, come away saying what if? The should of, would of, could of games that keep you thinking and fuming until the next run, because now it is so close you can taste it. That is why I am going with NC State in this one. I think they have what it takes to pull off the upset. North Carolina has a key injury (stated earlier), but now that injury will raise its head and effect the Tar Heels outcome. Another reason is the fact that NC State has lost three times to the Heels. Yes three times. Twice in the regular season and once in the Conference Championships. The game at North Carolina was a rout. The game at NC State was close, but not close enough. The last game on a neutral court - in a tourney style game for a little bragging rights as well - was a one point game. It is like the Wolfpack are climbing a mountain and the fourth time will get them over the hump. I just think that it is hard to beat a team four times in a year, especially a conference foe. These teams will pretty much know everything there is to know about one another with no surprises, except the upset of course.
To share thoughts about the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 go to our Reader Responses page...
The Sweet 16 and Elite 8... time for the meat of the greatest sports event of the year. There're four regions so we have four different mindsets and perspectives. Borum, Jerry, Neff, and I share our thoughts on how the next four nights are gonna play out:
The East
By Steve Strange
1 Syracuse vs. 4 Wisconsin in Boston (at 7:15pm on CBS)
How They Got Here:
Syracuse mowed through the Big East, only losing one game all regular season. They somehow either blocked out the Bernie Fine disgrace, or used it as motivation? Things were great until 12 days ago. The Cuse got knocked out of the Big East Tourney Semifinals, lost Fab Melo's eligibility, and flirted with being the first ever one seed to lose to a 16. The Orange seemed to rediscover their groove against Kansas State in Round 3, coasting through the second half to a double-digit victory.
Wisconsin did what Wisconsin does. The Badgers grinded through the Big Ten, and saved their best basketball for the tournament. The Wisky/Vanderbilt game on Saturday was some of the purest basketball you'll ever see. Wisconsin plays so fundamentally sound and hard simultaneously it's almost scary.
My Prediction:
I saw this line at Syracuse -5 on Sunday night. It's now down to Syracuse -3.5 as of Tuesday evening, which means I'm not alone in liking Wisconsin in this game. I think Syracuse is emotionally spent, and has already peaked this season. I think Syracuse is ripe to be upset... Kansas State just wasn't the right team for the job because they couldn't hit jumpshots. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is an extremely smooth shooting team. Even the big men (like 6-10 Jared Berggren, who shoots .356 behind the arc) can knock em down. Combine that with Syracuse's rebounding problems, and I like Wisconsin. I'll take the Badgers to grind one out by 5.
6 Cincinnati vs. 2 Ohio State in Boston (at 9:45pm on CBS)
How They Got Here:
Cincy had the infamous brawl with Xavier on December 10. After the game Coach Mick Cronin made every Bearcat take off their jersey, and told them they had to earn their way back on the team. It was a classic case of a coach taking control of his team. The Bearcats responded by winning 10 of their next 11. The Bearcats prepared for the neutral courts of tournament play by going 5-4 on the road in Big East play. They shocked the entire conference and college basketball fans across America by making the Big East Tournament Finals, only to lose to Louisville. The Bearcats bounced back to jump out to an ugly 16-2 lead on Texas the first 12 minutes of their Round 2 game. The Bearcats survived a spirited Texas comeback to win 65-59. In Round 3's final game, Cincy and FSU traded punches into the wee hours of Sunday night. Cincy hung on to pull out the 62-56 upset.
Ohio State was considered a front runner to win it all since the start of the season, but the Buckeyes proved vulnerable in February losing home games to Michigan State and Wisconsin. Ohio State snapped into a different mode in the Big Ten Tournament, though, slapping around Purdue and Michigan before losing 68-64 to Michigan State in one of the best college basketball games ever played. Ohio State coasted into Round 3, where they outlasted a Gonzaga team who had humiliated WVU two nights before.
My Prediction:
Cincy's capable of just about anything. Rick Pitino's right: Cincy and Louisville are brothers. Cronin is a former assistant to Pitino, and coach's like it. Cincy wins games in the same hideous fashion Louisville does. But Ohio State... they might be the best team in the country right now. Aaron Craft might have played his best game as a Buckeye against Gonzaga, DeShaun Thomas is blowing up, Jared Sullinger's hittin' three's... no way I would even dream of going against OSU right now. Give me the Buckeyes by 10.
Elite 8 Matchup: 2 Ohio State vs. 4 Wisconsin (on Saturday)
Big Ten Power... 9-2 through the first three rounds. If Purdue would have hung on against Kansas - and the conference would have been 10-1 - I would have argued that it was the most impressive conference domination in the history of the tournament (considering the parity that now exists in today's college hoops). Wisconsin plays with a lot of heart, and Bo Ryan is one of the most underrated coaches in all of sports, but Ohio State looks great. Give me the Buckeyes by six or seven in this one...
West: Two Contrasting Styles
By Jerry Rogers
The two games slated in this region could not be any more different. The Michigan State/Louisville game will most likely be a defensive battle whereas the Florida/Marquette game will be a contest to see who can run up and down the court more often. This region offers you the best of both worlds. If you want a defense battle, we have that. Want an offensive shootout, we have that too! I cannot wait to watch this electrifying region.
Michigan State vs. Louisville
Both teams faced stiff competition in the round of 32, but the higher seeds prevailed to provide us with a tremendous defensive battle. The backcourts will be the highlight on the court, but there will also be an intriguing matchup happening off the court. Both of these teams are led by extraordinarily talented coaches. This is Tom Izzo’s fourth number one seed in the tournament. His previous three teams made it to the Final Four. I know what you are thinking, “Well let’s just pencil in the Spartans to beat Louisville then.” Let’s look at the flip side as well. Rick Pitino has never lost a regional semifinal matchup in nine tries. At Louisville alone he is 3-0 in Sweet 16 games. Let’s also mention that Louisville has an extra day in Phoenix to practice due to their travel schedule. Pitino has made a career out of taking advantage of the extra preparation days in order to have his team primed for anything that will be thrown at them.
There is no doubt that the coaching matchup will be amazing, but Michigan State does hold one advantage—Draymond Green. This man makes everyone around him better and has been a man amongst boys while on the court. Since 1985, he has more points (40), rebounds (20), and assists (16) than any other player in his first two games of an NCAA tournament. If Louisville can limit his ability to get open in the high post and challenge Green’s shots, they have a chance. Louisville has had their back against the wall since the Big East tournament, and they responded by winning that title. I wouldn’t count them out just yet.
Odds to win this game: Michigan State 55% - Louisville 45%
My pick: Michigan State is the better team, but I like the hot hand in Louisville for this game.
Marquette vs. Florida
Marquette was tested by Murray State while Florida put on a shooting performance against Norfolk State in the round of 32. Marquette showed some poise and ability to comeback on a Murray State team that led most of the game. A second half run with 8 minutes to go really changed the tide of the game. Florida got out of the gate quick and routed a Norfolk State team that forgot where the hoop was for most of the game. Those wins set the stage for an offensive battle that will greatly contrast the other regional semifinal.
Marquette boasts two players who have the ability to take over this game. Darius Johnson-Odom is a point machine and has scored in double figures in 33 of the Golden Eagles 34 games this season. The senior guard and All-Big East First Team selection has been a dependable source of leadership all season. Jae Crowder is another senior who has tremendous ability and the hardware to prove it. Crowder is the Big East Player of the Year and has shown he can up his level of play when needed. After trailing at the half to Murray State, Crowder chipped in 12 points, 7 rebounds, and blocked 2 shots down the stretch to help secure the Marquette win. Florida should be weary of these two threats, but the Gators have the ability to get up and down the floor with the best of them. Against Norfolk State, Florida proved that they can shoot with any team in the country. When this team is hitting their shots, they are dangerous. Florida struggled at times to consistently hit their shots, and that is why they are a 7 seed. However, that can be thrown out the window right now because the Gators are hitting on all cylinders. The beauty of a tournament is that the hot team can be dangerous despite an inconsistent season. The key will be which Florida team shows up to shoot the ball.
Odds to win the game: Marquette 60% - Florida 40%
My pick: Marquette
Possible Elite Eight Matchup: If my picks hold true, we will see the rubber match between Louisville and Marquette. Each team has beat the other team once this year, but Louisville looked pretty convincing in their recent win against Marquette in the Big East tournament. I think Louisville has opened up their game and taken it to the next level in postseason play, including the Big East tournament. Marquette has showed some weaknesses against BYU and Murray State. If Louisville gets past a very talented Michigan State team, I like their chances to make it to the Final Four. Make sure to tune into the games on Thursday at 7:47 PM and 10:17 PM to see two amazing basketball games.
THE SOUTH
By Justin Borum
What a privilege and honor it’s been the last few weeks to watch college sports in its purest form. First, I have to commend Jerry’s Lehigh Mountain Hawks on a huge upset over Duke. I’m not exactly sure it was an upset because at no point did it seem like Duke had an answer for McCollum. What’s great about this website is you have people like Jerry informing us about players like this kid who we otherwise might not hear about until he rips Duke’s backcourt for 30 points. I was really looking forward to picking those guys over Baylor. Most readers know I’ve thought Kentucky has been the best team in the nation since they handed Florida their worst loss under Donovan’s tenure. I’m not a Wildcat fan by any means, but I think the one-and-done approach is going to work this year because of their personnel.
Kentucky vs. Indiana
Arguably the most anticipated rematch of the postseason (for obvious reasons), I disagree with Jay Williams and others that we’ll see a blow-out. Although Kentucky's only lost twice this year, the Hoosiers have more of a chance than anyone because they’re one of the two teams that have showed us Kentucky’s vulnerability. In a tournament with so many great coaches and organizational scouting programs, you’d think there might be a few more teams out there that have the formula to knock off Kentucky. I read that programs such as Michigan State, North Carolina, and Florida have a full-time staff of five or more seasoned coaches that cut up film, talk to other coaches, and diagnose every team throughout the season in case they meet them in March. From what I understand, this staff isn’t always necessarily on the floor on game days. Although Indiana accomplished the seemingly impossible back in December, in order to do it again, they’ll have to be even better and much more lucky. It’s obvious by watching them play, Kentucky is much more coherent offensively and players have seemed to assume their roles within Calipari’s system. Most analysts say Teague, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Jones have joined Davis and developed into 2012 NBA lottery picks.
Keys for a monumental upset over Kentucky:
Drive the ball directly at Davis without worrying about getting charges--Anthony Davis stayed in foul trouble in the earlier match. In fact, he only played a little over 20 minutes. Zeller’s number one goal should be to keep him sitting on the bench.
Shoot and make as many three’s as possible--There was a spurt in the first contest where Indiana reeled off seven straight in a course of only about eight minutes. They obviously have to shoot a ridiculous percentage again from downtown to win.
Eliminate Jones and Davis’ ability to accumulate offensive rebounds--Both of these guys have pretty good jump shots; however, they make their living 3-5 feet from the basket on putbacks, dunks, and junk points. Terrence Jones was a surprising no-show in the first game.
Keep the crowd from becoming a big factor--Kentucky has led the nation in attendance for as far back as I can remember. Their fans also travel better than any team in country. Plan on seeing nothing but a sea of blue in Atlanta.
Prediction: Kentucky controls the game and sustains Indiana’s few drives. Kentucky wins by 6.
Xavier vs. Baylor
Again, I think Lehigh was a better team than Xavier. I think you’re going to see two different styles clash in this one. During the course of this tournament, my buddies and I have debated point guard play. In my opinion, a team can win a championship with role players at the 2-5 positions, but a quality point guard is a MUST. There have been some excellent guards in this tournament, but Xavier’s Holloway has to be one of the best. He makes unbelievable decisions with the basketball and he is willing to take on any role to ensure his team’s success. I was also impressed with their offense sets and defensive intensity. I never thought that Baylor was anywhere close to being as good as Missouri in the Big 12, but the last few games have changed my mind. The thing that stands out the most about the Bears is their transition game and how athletic they are at every position---Their starting five is probably the quickest and most athletic in the entire tournament.
Keys to Xavier pulling off the upset:
Control the pace of the game--Don’t be surprised if Xavier coach Chris Mack opts to slow things down. The last thing the Musketeers or any team want to do is attempt to run the court with Baylor. I foresee them walking the ball down the court, using up the shot clock and trying to get a quality shot for Holloway or an inside feed to Kenny Frease.
Confuse Baylor defensively—Man-to-Man might not be the best or only alternative for Xavier to win. I’d like to see them alternate with pressure and multiple zone looks. If Vandy coach Kevin Stallings had it to do over again, he would use the same approach. The last 4 minutes of the Vandy-Wisconsin game, he switched to a zone and totally confused the Badgers…Too little too late.
Get back in transition defense--The only member of Xavier's offensive unit I would allow to crash the offensive glass is Frease, and I would even consider him getting his butt back also. Get back, find a guy, contest a shot, or take a charge.
Prediction: Baylor soundly defeats Xavier by 10
Potential Elite 8 Matchup: Baylor vs. Kentucky
Keeping things real simple here: Kentucky's the best team in the country, and they'll be tasting the Final Four. Baylor and Kentucky will fly up and down the court, and break a few lights on the scoreboard. It will be entertaining... Going with Kentucky by at least 10.
Breakdown of the Midwest
By Jason Neff
Matchups
Ohio University vs. North Carolina
Kansas vs. North Carolina State
I will start with the most surprising team in the NCAA tournament: the Bobcats of Ohio University - not to be confused with The Ohio State University. The Bobcats are coming out of one of the weakest conferences in basketball (not usually weak, but this year they are). I guess that is the exciting part of it, nobody thought a team from the MAC would last this long, not even me and I root for OU (one of the two MAC schools I attended in college). I haven't been more pumped for them since the "Shaq of the Mac," Gary Trent played his final year with the Bobcats and made the tourney. They are by far the most surprising and impressive team in the tourney if you consider that they beat a great Michigan team and a solid control team like South Florida. They have their backs against the wall with North Carolina, though. The Bobcats will be overmatched on every level. North Carolina has the key injury, however, it won't come into play here, especially since they have Henson back. North Carolina has had an easy road to get to this point. They played Vermont and Creighton. If you take both of these teams and let them play North Carolina 5 times each, North Carolina will lose maybe once. I look for the Bobcats to come out swinging (they have to) and take an early lead and maybe catch the Tar Heels off guard for the first 8 minutes of play. Then, the big dogs will wake up and reality will set in for each team. North Carolina will realize how much of a mismatch they have and Ohio University will realize they are just undersized and not athletic enough to compete with them. The Tar Heels will go into halftime with a nice lead before blowing it open in the second half. Obviously, I am looking for the exact opposite situation here, but to be fair Ohio University has come a long way and it is just time to go home. Don't get me wrong, they will play with a lot of heart and should keep their heads held high for the run that they made, but North Carolina will be too strong for them to overcome.
In Game 2, we have a top tier team in Kansas versus a mid-level ACC team in North Carolina State. I am kicking myself right now because I didn't see the Wolfpack in this at all. When I look at their season, they only have two head-scratching losses (Stanford and Georgia Tech), and some would argue the Georgia Tech loss was a good loss (they were much better when Rice was playing). The Stanford loss is definitely not an argument, they are bad and from a bad conference but we can allow one excuse. Almost every other loss has come from a team that is in the Sweet 16 (North Carolina, Indiana, Syracuse), teams that were one game away from it (Vanderbilt and Florida St.) or just tough conference games (Duke, Clemson, and Virginia). Yeah I know, Virginia, but they were playing great at the time. On to the other side with Kansas. The Jayhawks pretty much dominated all season. They drew a little luck when they played Ohio State with Sullinger out, and played tough games with Baylor, Missouri, and Kansas St. They do, however, have a couple losses at home (Davidson and Duke) that brings this question to mind, "Do the Jayhawks overlook this game for North Carolina?" Obviously, they can let their guard down, just like they did versus Purdue, but this time will they come back from it? I say no. They have the talent and length to dominate this game, but I don't think they will. And if you let a team who has played a bunch of battles with the same type of teams in it, they will eventually take you down. This will be a very hard-fought game that will come down to the wire and I am looking for the Wolfpack to take advantage of a learning year (with their schedule) that will set them up for the win.
Elite 8 game of the Midwest
North Carolina versus North Carolina State
Can NC State, the mid-level ACC team take out North Carolina, the champs of the ACC? Yes they can. Come on, it is the NCAA Tourney folks. This is where upsets happen, where dreams are made, and where dreams are destroyed. This is the round when coaches, teams, fans, parents, and everybody else associated with the school, come away saying what if? The should of, would of, could of games that keep you thinking and fuming until the next run, because now it is so close you can taste it. That is why I am going with NC State in this one. I think they have what it takes to pull off the upset. North Carolina has a key injury (stated earlier), but now that injury will raise its head and effect the Tar Heels outcome. Another reason is the fact that NC State has lost three times to the Heels. Yes three times. Twice in the regular season and once in the Conference Championships. The game at North Carolina was a rout. The game at NC State was close, but not close enough. The last game on a neutral court - in a tourney style game for a little bragging rights as well - was a one point game. It is like the Wolfpack are climbing a mountain and the fourth time will get them over the hump. I just think that it is hard to beat a team four times in a year, especially a conference foe. These teams will pretty much know everything there is to know about one another with no surprises, except the upset of course.
To share thoughts about the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 go to our Reader Responses page...
Lehigh Upsets Duke--Told You They Had a Shot
There was little doubt who the better team was on Friday night.
March 17, 2012
by Jerry Rogers
Last Sunday I was driving my car back to Lehigh when my roommate called me and told me we had Duke in the first round. Upon hearing this news I said, "Great, Duke isn't that good. We can beat them." I am now writing an article less than a week later recapping Lehigh's 75-70 upset win over Duke. It was an amazing game to watch. At no point in the game did Lehigh look like an underdog. They came out of the tunnel, made Duke play their game, and really dictated the pace of the game. Lehigh got Duke in foul trouble by driving the lane and going right at their significantly larger big men. The guard play of Lehigh was head and shoulders above that of Duke. I have been preaching C.J. McCollum's name on this site for a while now, and I hope you realize why I have been doing that. There was no doubt that C.J. was the best player on the court last night with 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. When a reporter asked C.J. if he was the best player on the court, he responded, “Definitely, I don’t mean to sound cocky or anything like that, but I work extremely hard and I felt like it was a good matchup for myself and my team.” That doesn't sound like a player or team that was intimidated.
After watching the post-game player interviews, there is little doubt that the players drew upon the fans for support. Each player pointed out how the one section of Brown and White was consistently louder than the sea of Blue. However, they had much more to cheer for throughout the night. It is also worth noting how many UNC fans bought tickets to root against Duke. Towards the end of the game several fans in UNC blue could be spotted holding the "Go Lehigh" signs that were passed out to the fans. It was an amazing site to see a building that is only 55 miles from Duke turn against them once the crowd realized the underdog had a legitimate chance of winning the game. Everyone that was neutral suddenly started cheering for Lehigh and the underdog fed off of that energy. Watch the end of the game once more if you get a chance. Lehigh didn't celebrate by running around the court and going nuts like a number 15 seed should. Instead, they patted each other on the back a few times, shook some hands, and collectively went over to the fan section and pointed toward them. Compare this to the Norfolk State celebration 3 hours earlier that was sheer madness, and Lehigh looked like a team that expected to win. When they did win, they acted like they had been there before, even though they had just made history. An underdog that not only doesn't know they are supposed to lose but fully expects to win can be a very dangerous thing in March. I would watch out Xavier, you guys are next.
One other point that must be said about this game that no other media outlet will provide is the celebration that occurred on Lehigh's campus after the victory. Coming from a person who has seen riots at Penn State and couches burn at WVU, I headed over to campus to see what the students would be doing. A large contingent of students gathered to celebrate the victory, and overall they were quite restrained. I fully expected people to go nuts, but Lehigh students, much like their basketball team, were poised and celebrated rather responsibly on campus. I can't attest for what went on once they left campus, but while on campus it was a very different scene from what I am used to. The cops blocked off the street and just let the kids have a good time. Music was blasting, people were dancing, and news crews were filming it. There was very minimal actual destruction. A few kids pulled some tree branches down and one student was burning a Duke shirt, but that was it. It wasn't a destructive gather, instead it was a time of joy that could be seen on everyone's face. There were people working for Lehigh coming around taking pictures of the partying in order to put it on the website. The most hilarious scene was the cops standing back and taking pictures of students just having a good time. Don't get me wrong, the cops were in position to handle anything that occurred (they did put out the burning Duke shirt very quickly and kept kids from going to Lehigh's President's house) but at the same time they realized this was a special time for the small school. They wanted to have documentation that they were there when Lehigh beat Duke. The kids were just having fun and releasing their pent up emotions. After an hour or so the students dispersed and everyone took their celebrations off campus. I must applaud how everyone handled the celebrations after the victory.
by Jerry Rogers
Last Sunday I was driving my car back to Lehigh when my roommate called me and told me we had Duke in the first round. Upon hearing this news I said, "Great, Duke isn't that good. We can beat them." I am now writing an article less than a week later recapping Lehigh's 75-70 upset win over Duke. It was an amazing game to watch. At no point in the game did Lehigh look like an underdog. They came out of the tunnel, made Duke play their game, and really dictated the pace of the game. Lehigh got Duke in foul trouble by driving the lane and going right at their significantly larger big men. The guard play of Lehigh was head and shoulders above that of Duke. I have been preaching C.J. McCollum's name on this site for a while now, and I hope you realize why I have been doing that. There was no doubt that C.J. was the best player on the court last night with 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. When a reporter asked C.J. if he was the best player on the court, he responded, “Definitely, I don’t mean to sound cocky or anything like that, but I work extremely hard and I felt like it was a good matchup for myself and my team.” That doesn't sound like a player or team that was intimidated.
After watching the post-game player interviews, there is little doubt that the players drew upon the fans for support. Each player pointed out how the one section of Brown and White was consistently louder than the sea of Blue. However, they had much more to cheer for throughout the night. It is also worth noting how many UNC fans bought tickets to root against Duke. Towards the end of the game several fans in UNC blue could be spotted holding the "Go Lehigh" signs that were passed out to the fans. It was an amazing site to see a building that is only 55 miles from Duke turn against them once the crowd realized the underdog had a legitimate chance of winning the game. Everyone that was neutral suddenly started cheering for Lehigh and the underdog fed off of that energy. Watch the end of the game once more if you get a chance. Lehigh didn't celebrate by running around the court and going nuts like a number 15 seed should. Instead, they patted each other on the back a few times, shook some hands, and collectively went over to the fan section and pointed toward them. Compare this to the Norfolk State celebration 3 hours earlier that was sheer madness, and Lehigh looked like a team that expected to win. When they did win, they acted like they had been there before, even though they had just made history. An underdog that not only doesn't know they are supposed to lose but fully expects to win can be a very dangerous thing in March. I would watch out Xavier, you guys are next.
One other point that must be said about this game that no other media outlet will provide is the celebration that occurred on Lehigh's campus after the victory. Coming from a person who has seen riots at Penn State and couches burn at WVU, I headed over to campus to see what the students would be doing. A large contingent of students gathered to celebrate the victory, and overall they were quite restrained. I fully expected people to go nuts, but Lehigh students, much like their basketball team, were poised and celebrated rather responsibly on campus. I can't attest for what went on once they left campus, but while on campus it was a very different scene from what I am used to. The cops blocked off the street and just let the kids have a good time. Music was blasting, people were dancing, and news crews were filming it. There was very minimal actual destruction. A few kids pulled some tree branches down and one student was burning a Duke shirt, but that was it. It wasn't a destructive gather, instead it was a time of joy that could be seen on everyone's face. There were people working for Lehigh coming around taking pictures of the partying in order to put it on the website. The most hilarious scene was the cops standing back and taking pictures of students just having a good time. Don't get me wrong, the cops were in position to handle anything that occurred (they did put out the burning Duke shirt very quickly and kept kids from going to Lehigh's President's house) but at the same time they realized this was a special time for the small school. They wanted to have documentation that they were there when Lehigh beat Duke. The kids were just having fun and releasing their pent up emotions. After an hour or so the students dispersed and everyone took their celebrations off campus. I must applaud how everyone handled the celebrations after the victory.
Five Teams that Could Bust Your Bracket
March 14, 2012
by Jerry Rogers
5. Iowa State: For some reason everyone is amped up about this possible second round match-up of Kentucky versus Connecticut. The defending champs don’t normally have a second round game against the best team in the nation. It would be an exciting game, but let’s not overlook Iowa State. They have quality wins against Kansas, Baylor, and Lehigh. They are a quality team that is looking to get back on track after getting bounced against Texas in their first game of the conference tournament. If this team comes out and plays well, they have the talent to play with not only UConn but Kentucky as well. I am certainly not overlooking this Iowa State team.
4. Syracuse: Every article you read tells you how much adversity Syracuse has overcome this year, so they should be able to survive the loss of Fab Melo due to an “eligibility issue.” I am not so sure of that fact. Even during their 11-game winning streak, Syracuse looked shaky. Without Melo in the lineup, they have a bunch of matchup problems moving forward in the tournament. Not only will Kansas State give them trouble if they advance, but my number three team is lurking in the East bracket.
3. Vanderbilt: This is a good team getting hot at the right time. They should be riding a high after beating Kentucky for the SEC championship. If they can carry that momentum into the tournament, watch out. Vanderbilt has been up and down against ranked teams this season, but there is no doubt they have the ability to knock of anyone. They went into Marquette this year and walked out with a 17-point victory. You couple that ability with a weak one-seed and you have the makings of a potential run.
2. Louisville: Speaking of hot teams, Louisville stormed through the Big East tournament and put together four straight wins. Pitino has his players playing their best basketball of the year at the right time. They have significantly improved their mid-range shots down the stretch, and that has been crucial to their improvement. If those shots continue to fall, this team could be dangerous in the very competitive West bracket.
1. Murray State: There is no doubt that the West is the strongest bracket. Every chance you get to watch a game in this bracket, make sure you take the opportunity to savour it. There should be some great basketball coming out of this section. Most of this good basketball could be coming from the 6 seed Murray State. Yes, a one loss team as a 6 seed. They have to have the most wins of any 6 seed ever in the tournament. Despite being number 12 in the nation, most people write this team off because of their schedule. Take it from a person who has watched over a dozen Racers games, this team is for real. There are some great matchups in the pipeline for this team if they get past an upstart Colorado State team. A potential matchup against Marquette or Missouri would be amazing. All I am asking is that you don’t overlook this team due to their low seed. This is a top-10 caliber team that can compete with anyone in the nation.
by Jerry Rogers
5. Iowa State: For some reason everyone is amped up about this possible second round match-up of Kentucky versus Connecticut. The defending champs don’t normally have a second round game against the best team in the nation. It would be an exciting game, but let’s not overlook Iowa State. They have quality wins against Kansas, Baylor, and Lehigh. They are a quality team that is looking to get back on track after getting bounced against Texas in their first game of the conference tournament. If this team comes out and plays well, they have the talent to play with not only UConn but Kentucky as well. I am certainly not overlooking this Iowa State team.
4. Syracuse: Every article you read tells you how much adversity Syracuse has overcome this year, so they should be able to survive the loss of Fab Melo due to an “eligibility issue.” I am not so sure of that fact. Even during their 11-game winning streak, Syracuse looked shaky. Without Melo in the lineup, they have a bunch of matchup problems moving forward in the tournament. Not only will Kansas State give them trouble if they advance, but my number three team is lurking in the East bracket.
3. Vanderbilt: This is a good team getting hot at the right time. They should be riding a high after beating Kentucky for the SEC championship. If they can carry that momentum into the tournament, watch out. Vanderbilt has been up and down against ranked teams this season, but there is no doubt they have the ability to knock of anyone. They went into Marquette this year and walked out with a 17-point victory. You couple that ability with a weak one-seed and you have the makings of a potential run.
2. Louisville: Speaking of hot teams, Louisville stormed through the Big East tournament and put together four straight wins. Pitino has his players playing their best basketball of the year at the right time. They have significantly improved their mid-range shots down the stretch, and that has been crucial to their improvement. If those shots continue to fall, this team could be dangerous in the very competitive West bracket.
1. Murray State: There is no doubt that the West is the strongest bracket. Every chance you get to watch a game in this bracket, make sure you take the opportunity to savour it. There should be some great basketball coming out of this section. Most of this good basketball could be coming from the 6 seed Murray State. Yes, a one loss team as a 6 seed. They have to have the most wins of any 6 seed ever in the tournament. Despite being number 12 in the nation, most people write this team off because of their schedule. Take it from a person who has watched over a dozen Racers games, this team is for real. There are some great matchups in the pipeline for this team if they get past an upstart Colorado State team. A potential matchup against Marquette or Missouri would be amazing. All I am asking is that you don’t overlook this team due to their low seed. This is a top-10 caliber team that can compete with anyone in the nation.
Five March Madness Predictions (March 13, 2012, By Steve Strange)
The greatest sports event of the year has arrived. I get so pumped for March Madness every year, and my bracket always implodes within the first couple of days. So take my predictions with a grain of salt. But, hey, maybe this is my year? And that's what all 68 teams are thinking, too. And that's what makes March Madness so... well, that's one of the things that makes March Madness so great. The fact that every single game is televised, that tickets to the games are reasonably priced, that kids cry, coaches cut down nets... you know the drill. I'm just so happy it's here... here are five predictions to follow at your own risk:
5. Syracuse Will Be the First One Seed Out
I'm almost upset that Fab Melo was declared ineligible today. I already had death-stare Frank Martin's Kansas State knocking off The Orange anyway (I'm obviously assuming KSU beats Southern Miss). Part of this is because of my bias against Jim Boeheim... I hate him. To deflect criticism of his backing of assistant coach/pedophile Bernie Fine Boeheim said "I'm no Joe Paterno." Well, as my friend Jonathan Borum always says, "He's right. He is no Joe Paterno. He's nothing like him."
But it's a different bias that makes me doubt Syracuse... that of the Big East bias. I'm not saying the Big East sucks or anything. I'm just saying they're just like all other college basketball conferences: struggling to keep up with the Big Ten. And can anyone confidently say that Syracuse is even the second best team in the Big East today? Kansas State vs. Syracuse is a coinflip scenario in my opinion, and I'll take my chances.
5. Syracuse Will Be the First One Seed Out
I'm almost upset that Fab Melo was declared ineligible today. I already had death-stare Frank Martin's Kansas State knocking off The Orange anyway (I'm obviously assuming KSU beats Southern Miss). Part of this is because of my bias against Jim Boeheim... I hate him. To deflect criticism of his backing of assistant coach/pedophile Bernie Fine Boeheim said "I'm no Joe Paterno." Well, as my friend Jonathan Borum always says, "He's right. He is no Joe Paterno. He's nothing like him."
But it's a different bias that makes me doubt Syracuse... that of the Big East bias. I'm not saying the Big East sucks or anything. I'm just saying they're just like all other college basketball conferences: struggling to keep up with the Big Ten. And can anyone confidently say that Syracuse is even the second best team in the Big East today? Kansas State vs. Syracuse is a coinflip scenario in my opinion, and I'll take my chances.
4. Kansas and Duke Will Struggle
Phog Allen Field House, Cameron Indoor... Kansas and Duke don't get to bring those atmospheres with them. They'll be some Cameron crazies and some Rock Chalk, Jayhawk-type attitudes, but it's not the same. I have a full-time job so I don't get to watch every game. But in the times I've watched the Blue Devils and Jayhawks I haven't been impressed. Yes, Kansas is explosive. And we all know how disciplined Coach K's teams are. But you can read Jerry's column below as to why Lehigh (as a 15 seed) presents a challenge to Duke, and I'm hearing mumblings that Detroit might be the best 15 seed of all time. A 15 has only beaten a 2 four times in the history of the modern tournament so I'm not picking an upset. But I do think Lehigh and Detroit will put up a fight. This will make Duke ripe for Notre Dame, and Kansas vulnerable for Purdue, and I'm saying they both get clipped over the weekend.
3. The West... WOW
Get ready to be entertained by the West region. One seed Michigan State is the best team in the best conference in the country. Two seed Missouri is the best team in the Big 12 and seems to be peaking. Three seed Marquette is capable of knocking off anyone in a one-game format. Four seed Louisivlle just got done dismantling the entire Big East en route to the conference championship. Six seed Murray State lost one game this season. Seven seed Florida can stroke three's with the best of them. Sit back and enjoy.
2. The Big Ten Will Dominate
Yep, I'm biased. But I've never been this big on the Big Ten before. And, if helps my credibility at all, I said the Big Ten sucked in football for most of the 2011 season. Here's my theory: The Big Ten Network helps the conference in basketball tremendously, while it really doesn't affect football as much. Because with 344 college basketball teams, the talent is more spread. There's only so much TV time. So high school talents who want guaranteed viewership might go to the Big Ten... it's a good recruiting tool. But in football... if you're in a major conference almost all of your games are going to get seen. There's less teams (120) and more definitive powers. I don't think it's any accident that the Big Ten Network started in 2007, and five years later that the Big Ten is suddenly the best basketball conference.
Got all six Big Ten teams going to the Sweet 16, Purdue and Wisconsin going to the Elite 8, Ohio State and Michigan State making the Final Four AND................
1. Michigan State Wins It All
First off, I think this is going to be a Final Four that lives up to the hype. We're talking prime real estate, juicy steak, top shelf... Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan State, and UNC. The Butler and VCU stories have been nice, but my gut tells me this is gonna be a big boy Final Four.
If I had a 17-year old kid who was good enough to play basketball anywhere in the world, I'd send him to Tom Izzo. Because all Izzo wants is kids that play the game hard, and want to be decent human beings. Sparty is impossible to eliminate come tourney time when they're just another team. So what is Michigan State gonna do now that it's the best team in the best conference in the country?
To talk tourney stuff go to our Reader Responses page...
Phog Allen Field House, Cameron Indoor... Kansas and Duke don't get to bring those atmospheres with them. They'll be some Cameron crazies and some Rock Chalk, Jayhawk-type attitudes, but it's not the same. I have a full-time job so I don't get to watch every game. But in the times I've watched the Blue Devils and Jayhawks I haven't been impressed. Yes, Kansas is explosive. And we all know how disciplined Coach K's teams are. But you can read Jerry's column below as to why Lehigh (as a 15 seed) presents a challenge to Duke, and I'm hearing mumblings that Detroit might be the best 15 seed of all time. A 15 has only beaten a 2 four times in the history of the modern tournament so I'm not picking an upset. But I do think Lehigh and Detroit will put up a fight. This will make Duke ripe for Notre Dame, and Kansas vulnerable for Purdue, and I'm saying they both get clipped over the weekend.
3. The West... WOW
Get ready to be entertained by the West region. One seed Michigan State is the best team in the best conference in the country. Two seed Missouri is the best team in the Big 12 and seems to be peaking. Three seed Marquette is capable of knocking off anyone in a one-game format. Four seed Louisivlle just got done dismantling the entire Big East en route to the conference championship. Six seed Murray State lost one game this season. Seven seed Florida can stroke three's with the best of them. Sit back and enjoy.
2. The Big Ten Will Dominate
Yep, I'm biased. But I've never been this big on the Big Ten before. And, if helps my credibility at all, I said the Big Ten sucked in football for most of the 2011 season. Here's my theory: The Big Ten Network helps the conference in basketball tremendously, while it really doesn't affect football as much. Because with 344 college basketball teams, the talent is more spread. There's only so much TV time. So high school talents who want guaranteed viewership might go to the Big Ten... it's a good recruiting tool. But in football... if you're in a major conference almost all of your games are going to get seen. There's less teams (120) and more definitive powers. I don't think it's any accident that the Big Ten Network started in 2007, and five years later that the Big Ten is suddenly the best basketball conference.
Got all six Big Ten teams going to the Sweet 16, Purdue and Wisconsin going to the Elite 8, Ohio State and Michigan State making the Final Four AND................
1. Michigan State Wins It All
First off, I think this is going to be a Final Four that lives up to the hype. We're talking prime real estate, juicy steak, top shelf... Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan State, and UNC. The Butler and VCU stories have been nice, but my gut tells me this is gonna be a big boy Final Four.
If I had a 17-year old kid who was good enough to play basketball anywhere in the world, I'd send him to Tom Izzo. Because all Izzo wants is kids that play the game hard, and want to be decent human beings. Sparty is impossible to eliminate come tourney time when they're just another team. So what is Michigan State gonna do now that it's the best team in the best conference in the country?
To talk tourney stuff go to our Reader Responses page...
Mountain Hawks Put on their Dancing Shoes!
March 8, 2012
by Jerry Rogers
In a game where Lehigh never lost the lead, they found themselves in a predicament with 26 seconds left in the game. After Mackey McKnight missed two foul shots for Lehigh, Bucknell had a chance to take a lead being down 78-77. Bucknell tried to get it to their leading scorer, Mike Muscala, but Lehigh took that option away quickly. Instead Cameron Ayers drove to the baseline and put up a shot with 7 seconds left. Out of nowhere, Lehigh's Gabe Knutson blocked the shot and Lehigh got the loose ball. That defining moment sealed the Mountain Hawks victory. They would go on to make four foul shots and win the game 82-77.
Even though Lehigh never trailed in the game, Bucknell made several runs in the game to always keep the score close and interesting. Buoyed by their 4,200 screaming fans in the tight Sojka Pavilion, Bucknell made the game very interesting, especially in the final seconds. However, Lehigh always had an answer to these Bucknell runs. Lehigh answered by going to their best player, C.J. McCollum, and watching him make ridiculously hard shots look so easy. McCollum finished with 29 points, 5 assistss, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. That is a pretty solid night. Gabe Knutson also contributed heavily for the Mountain Hawks. Beside making the pivotal block in the game, he chipped in with 23 points and 7 rebounds.
While this team will most likely get a 15 seed in the tournament, that doesn't mean they should be overlooked. Earlier in the year they went in Michigan State and gave them all they can handle. It is quite likely that Michigan State could be a 2 seed. Possible rematch? If that happens, I know the Mountain Hawks will be pumped up. I have been watching the team progress all year long and they are a much better team now than at the beginning of the year. That is exactly what you want to see out of a team. Only four 15 seeds have won first round games since the field went to 64 teams. Could we be looking at the 5th team? Only time will tell.
by Jerry Rogers
In a game where Lehigh never lost the lead, they found themselves in a predicament with 26 seconds left in the game. After Mackey McKnight missed two foul shots for Lehigh, Bucknell had a chance to take a lead being down 78-77. Bucknell tried to get it to their leading scorer, Mike Muscala, but Lehigh took that option away quickly. Instead Cameron Ayers drove to the baseline and put up a shot with 7 seconds left. Out of nowhere, Lehigh's Gabe Knutson blocked the shot and Lehigh got the loose ball. That defining moment sealed the Mountain Hawks victory. They would go on to make four foul shots and win the game 82-77.
Even though Lehigh never trailed in the game, Bucknell made several runs in the game to always keep the score close and interesting. Buoyed by their 4,200 screaming fans in the tight Sojka Pavilion, Bucknell made the game very interesting, especially in the final seconds. However, Lehigh always had an answer to these Bucknell runs. Lehigh answered by going to their best player, C.J. McCollum, and watching him make ridiculously hard shots look so easy. McCollum finished with 29 points, 5 assistss, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. That is a pretty solid night. Gabe Knutson also contributed heavily for the Mountain Hawks. Beside making the pivotal block in the game, he chipped in with 23 points and 7 rebounds.
While this team will most likely get a 15 seed in the tournament, that doesn't mean they should be overlooked. Earlier in the year they went in Michigan State and gave them all they can handle. It is quite likely that Michigan State could be a 2 seed. Possible rematch? If that happens, I know the Mountain Hawks will be pumped up. I have been watching the team progress all year long and they are a much better team now than at the beginning of the year. That is exactly what you want to see out of a team. Only four 15 seeds have won first round games since the field went to 64 teams. Could we be looking at the 5th team? Only time will tell.
Patriot League Championship--Must Watch Game
C.J. McCollum is just one reason to watch on Wednesday night.
March 6, 2012
by Jerry Rogers
It is February 16th in Lewisburg, PA and the top two teams in the Patriot league are battling it out. This is a place that has not been kind to visiting teams, especially Lehigh. There has been something in the heads of Lehigh players about the Sojka Pavilion that they needed to overcome in this game. Lehigh gets out to a small lead in the first half only to be negated before halftime. Bucknell builds a 7 point lead in the second half, which seems insurmountable in this surprisingly defensive battle. However, Lehigh does fight back and starts to find their groove. They end up tying the game 53-53 with less than a minute to play. Lehigh is known for their offense, not their defense. If there was ever a time they needed a stop it was here and now. Bucknell runs the clock down and takes a jumper… CLANG. The shot is missed and Lehigh grabs down the rebound. Lehigh calls a timeout to come up with one final play to try and win the game. Honestly, with roughly 15 seconds on the clock, there is only one play for Lehigh. Give the ball to your best player, C.J. McCollum, and let him decide your fate. This kid is a legitimate NBA talent as a junior. He has scouts coming to Lehigh to watch his games. The only thing that could be done was to give the ball to C.J. in a hostile environment and see what the kid would do. C.J. brings the ball down the court and sees nothing open. They are taking away all of his passing options… 10 seconds to go… he scans the lane… everything is covered…5 seconds to go… no time left for a rebound… this is it… C.J. is a foot behind the arc and lets the ball fly. As with any good shooter, he knows the minute the ball leaves his hand. The crowd knows that once C.J. lifts his right arm up in the air after taking the shot (like all good shooters do), the game is over. C.J. nailed the three and left .5 seconds on the clock. Bucknell could do nothing with that little amount of time and Lehigh won the game 56-53.
This was the last time that Lehigh and Bucknell played on Bucknell’s home court. It was an exciting game, and I see this Patriot League Championship being just as interesting. Lehigh proved they could win in the Sojka Pavilion, which should give them some confidence. They will need it, because Bucknell is a solid team. Three of their eight losses have been to teams going to March Madness, including top-seeded Syracuse. They are good, because they do the fundamentals well. In the Patriot League Semis, Bucknell went 19-19 from the foul line against Lafayette. It is going to be hard to come back on a team that shoots that well from the foul line. If Lehigh wants a chance to win this game and the right to go to the big dance, they need to come out with their offense firing on all cylinders. There is no doubt that this team is capable of scoring. Earlier in the season, Lehigh held a halftime lead at Michigan State. It took a second half surge by the Spartans to overcome Lehigh 90-81. Lehigh also had leads against St. John’s and Iowa State. C.J. will have to lead the way, and there is no doubt that he can do it. A more mature McCollum has shown to be less selfish this season while still keeping up his 21.7 PPG. Lehigh also comes into this game on a hot streak. They have won their last seven games, including the one at Bucknell. What has changed in that time? Lehigh’s bench has become more involved in games. Lehigh is using more players off their bench and rotating more fresh players. B.J. Bailey, a transfer from Boston University, has been instrumental down the stretch. After a few concussions and uncertainty about his future, Bailey decided at the last minute to continue his basketball career. He came into the season out of shape, but he has worked hard throughout the season and steadily increased his playing time. This will be an epic battle, and I want to make sure everyone knows a bit of the history behind these two teams before we watch the game at 7:00 P.M. on Wednesday. Oh and one more thing… Let’s Go Mountain Hawks!
by Jerry Rogers
It is February 16th in Lewisburg, PA and the top two teams in the Patriot league are battling it out. This is a place that has not been kind to visiting teams, especially Lehigh. There has been something in the heads of Lehigh players about the Sojka Pavilion that they needed to overcome in this game. Lehigh gets out to a small lead in the first half only to be negated before halftime. Bucknell builds a 7 point lead in the second half, which seems insurmountable in this surprisingly defensive battle. However, Lehigh does fight back and starts to find their groove. They end up tying the game 53-53 with less than a minute to play. Lehigh is known for their offense, not their defense. If there was ever a time they needed a stop it was here and now. Bucknell runs the clock down and takes a jumper… CLANG. The shot is missed and Lehigh grabs down the rebound. Lehigh calls a timeout to come up with one final play to try and win the game. Honestly, with roughly 15 seconds on the clock, there is only one play for Lehigh. Give the ball to your best player, C.J. McCollum, and let him decide your fate. This kid is a legitimate NBA talent as a junior. He has scouts coming to Lehigh to watch his games. The only thing that could be done was to give the ball to C.J. in a hostile environment and see what the kid would do. C.J. brings the ball down the court and sees nothing open. They are taking away all of his passing options… 10 seconds to go… he scans the lane… everything is covered…5 seconds to go… no time left for a rebound… this is it… C.J. is a foot behind the arc and lets the ball fly. As with any good shooter, he knows the minute the ball leaves his hand. The crowd knows that once C.J. lifts his right arm up in the air after taking the shot (like all good shooters do), the game is over. C.J. nailed the three and left .5 seconds on the clock. Bucknell could do nothing with that little amount of time and Lehigh won the game 56-53.
This was the last time that Lehigh and Bucknell played on Bucknell’s home court. It was an exciting game, and I see this Patriot League Championship being just as interesting. Lehigh proved they could win in the Sojka Pavilion, which should give them some confidence. They will need it, because Bucknell is a solid team. Three of their eight losses have been to teams going to March Madness, including top-seeded Syracuse. They are good, because they do the fundamentals well. In the Patriot League Semis, Bucknell went 19-19 from the foul line against Lafayette. It is going to be hard to come back on a team that shoots that well from the foul line. If Lehigh wants a chance to win this game and the right to go to the big dance, they need to come out with their offense firing on all cylinders. There is no doubt that this team is capable of scoring. Earlier in the season, Lehigh held a halftime lead at Michigan State. It took a second half surge by the Spartans to overcome Lehigh 90-81. Lehigh also had leads against St. John’s and Iowa State. C.J. will have to lead the way, and there is no doubt that he can do it. A more mature McCollum has shown to be less selfish this season while still keeping up his 21.7 PPG. Lehigh also comes into this game on a hot streak. They have won their last seven games, including the one at Bucknell. What has changed in that time? Lehigh’s bench has become more involved in games. Lehigh is using more players off their bench and rotating more fresh players. B.J. Bailey, a transfer from Boston University, has been instrumental down the stretch. After a few concussions and uncertainty about his future, Bailey decided at the last minute to continue his basketball career. He came into the season out of shape, but he has worked hard throughout the season and steadily increased his playing time. This will be an epic battle, and I want to make sure everyone knows a bit of the history behind these two teams before we watch the game at 7:00 P.M. on Wednesday. Oh and one more thing… Let’s Go Mountain Hawks!
Kevin Murphy of the Ohio Valley Conference Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles is 11th in the country in ppg
It's OK NBA, We Have "The Dance"
By: Justin Borum
03-02-2011
By: Justin Borum
03-02-2011
If anyone else is as sick as I am about lockouts, lackluster play, or egos the size of Lebron's newest SUV; do yourself a favor and take time to consider the "madness" going on this month. Sometime during the past two years, I have began to realize that what goes on in March represents everything that turns me off about professional sports and reminds me of everything I love about athletics. In fact, I credit my friend and your favorite sports connoisseur, Steve Strange, for opening up my eyes to its appeal.
While most major sports determine a champion through a series of monotonous best of seven games, or perhaps even a one game take-all winner, college basketball offers a 68-game sudden death nail biting format. Though, in my opinion, the 68 team format is best suited for basketball, there is nothing more exciting than watching that many kids play a possibility of four or five Superbowls.
As much as I'm pulling for my team [Tennessee Vols] to somehow finagle their way into the tournament as a 4 or 5 seed, I could never be completely devastated because the alternative is satisfying to me. It's likely that by my team getting the cold shoulder, it could also result in a much smaller, and perhaps more deserving team getting a chance to do the unthinkable (Butler). In football we all know bigger faster stronger wins most of the time, but I don't think that's necessarily the case in basketball. The tournament is about toughness, grit, and resilience.
College football shouldn't get all the credit for the pageantry either. Try watching a game at Duke's Cameron Indoor, or the Jayhawks Allen Fieldhouse. Regardless of the opponent, these are just a few of many arenas that house thousands of obnoxious fratboys that have no other interest than losing their voices so their team might get an edge. If you flick on an NBA game, you might catch Khloe waiting on Lamar to pick him up for the postgame appearances, or perhaps you might see Jack Nickelson spurt off an explictive towards a ref..... Entertaining to some.. Maybe...However with those types of distractions, sometimes it's difficult for me to think about basketball. Even from your television set, the more family-oriented atmosphere at Rupp and The Carrier Dome is a more enjoyable experience than at the Toyota Center or FedEx Forum.
After all the talk about salary caps, outrageous endoresment deals, and disgruntled millionaires, I'm sure the most avid pro fan would agree that there is something unique and refreshing about watching an 18-year old student from Butler compete and win against some of the nation's best athletes. I think this entire concept is the purpose of sports and its the reason that most of us began playing them in the first place. No other venue in sports allows for such a climatic ending as the Final Four.
The X's and O's of the college game even seems more appealing to me. Instead of watching four seven-footers stand around and watch a guy in isolation, college players still move around, set screens, and run motion offenses. Maybe it's just different styles or a lack of relative knowledge on my part, but other than the sheer athleticism that these NBA players possess, I don't see how it could be considered more exciting from a basketball standpoint. While today's NBA's stars are known to fraternize and pal around (I can't imagine Jordan befriending Starks), I can pretty much guarantee you're not going to see very many friends on opposing teams in the NCAA Tournament. You might see a few tempers flare as a result of a few chips on some shoulders. You're guaranteed to see basketball played at its highest level. Most importantly, you're guarenteed to watch amateur athletes leave everything they have on the court, every game. This is something every sports fan should learn to love and appreciate.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
While most major sports determine a champion through a series of monotonous best of seven games, or perhaps even a one game take-all winner, college basketball offers a 68-game sudden death nail biting format. Though, in my opinion, the 68 team format is best suited for basketball, there is nothing more exciting than watching that many kids play a possibility of four or five Superbowls.
As much as I'm pulling for my team [Tennessee Vols] to somehow finagle their way into the tournament as a 4 or 5 seed, I could never be completely devastated because the alternative is satisfying to me. It's likely that by my team getting the cold shoulder, it could also result in a much smaller, and perhaps more deserving team getting a chance to do the unthinkable (Butler). In football we all know bigger faster stronger wins most of the time, but I don't think that's necessarily the case in basketball. The tournament is about toughness, grit, and resilience.
College football shouldn't get all the credit for the pageantry either. Try watching a game at Duke's Cameron Indoor, or the Jayhawks Allen Fieldhouse. Regardless of the opponent, these are just a few of many arenas that house thousands of obnoxious fratboys that have no other interest than losing their voices so their team might get an edge. If you flick on an NBA game, you might catch Khloe waiting on Lamar to pick him up for the postgame appearances, or perhaps you might see Jack Nickelson spurt off an explictive towards a ref..... Entertaining to some.. Maybe...However with those types of distractions, sometimes it's difficult for me to think about basketball. Even from your television set, the more family-oriented atmosphere at Rupp and The Carrier Dome is a more enjoyable experience than at the Toyota Center or FedEx Forum.
After all the talk about salary caps, outrageous endoresment deals, and disgruntled millionaires, I'm sure the most avid pro fan would agree that there is something unique and refreshing about watching an 18-year old student from Butler compete and win against some of the nation's best athletes. I think this entire concept is the purpose of sports and its the reason that most of us began playing them in the first place. No other venue in sports allows for such a climatic ending as the Final Four.
The X's and O's of the college game even seems more appealing to me. Instead of watching four seven-footers stand around and watch a guy in isolation, college players still move around, set screens, and run motion offenses. Maybe it's just different styles or a lack of relative knowledge on my part, but other than the sheer athleticism that these NBA players possess, I don't see how it could be considered more exciting from a basketball standpoint. While today's NBA's stars are known to fraternize and pal around (I can't imagine Jordan befriending Starks), I can pretty much guarantee you're not going to see very many friends on opposing teams in the NCAA Tournament. You might see a few tempers flare as a result of a few chips on some shoulders. You're guaranteed to see basketball played at its highest level. Most importantly, you're guarenteed to watch amateur athletes leave everything they have on the court, every game. This is something every sports fan should learn to love and appreciate.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS
March 1, 2012
by Jerry Rogers
Alright guys here is my conference tournament breakdown. I will give you the conference, say a little bit about it, and then provide you with odds of the tops teams to win the tournament. After the tournaments, I will come back and give a result on how close I was to getting it right. Here we go.
RECORD: 13 CORRECT and 18 INCORRECT
ACC INCORRECT
Despite having two top ten teams, this is a down year for the ACC. There is no depth in this league, and there are only 4 locks to make the tournament: UNC, Duke, Virginia, and Florida State. Besides those teams the only one that can really make a run in the tournament right now is Miami. However, their odds are not that great.
Odds to win the tournament: UNC 50%, Duke 30%, Virginia 8%, Florida State 7%, Miami 5%
My pick: UNC
Result: UNC lost to Florida State. Both very good teams, but I didn't see this happening. FSU gets their first postseason ACC title.
American East CORRECT
No one is going to argue that this is a one bid conference. That one bid might be up for grabs, though. I see this is a legitimate 3 horse race where anyone can win. Stony Brook won the regular season title, but they suffered loses to #2 Vermont and #3 Boston U. There is a huge drop off after these three, but there is a lot of parody between the top three. Should be fun.
Odds to win the tournament: Stony Brook 45%, Vermont 35%, Boston U. 20%
My pick: Vermont
Result: Vermont is hitting their stride right in time for the tournament.
Atlantic 10 INCORRECT
This is a legitimate two bid conference with Temple and St. Louis. Those two have the best chance to win the tournament, but both have stumbled lately, which leaves the door open for others to steal a bid from this conference. Xavier might decide to come back to life this season, but I highly doubt that happens.
Odds to win the tournament: St. Louis 35%, Temple 35%, St. Bonaventure 15%, Xavier 15%
My pick: Temple
Result: St. Bonaventure won the A-10 to give the conference 4 bids. They were on my radar, but I didn't have the guts to pick them.
Atlantic Sun CORRECT
In my eyes this is a one bid conference with two teams looking to steal the spot. Belmont won the regular season, and they are the heavy favorites to win it. However, don’t count out Mercer. Belmont won the two games against Mercer this season, but only by a combined 5 points.
Odds to win the tournament: Belmont 60%, Mercer 40%
My pick: Belmont
Result: Belmont struggled in the first half against Florida Gulf Coast, but they came alive in the second half. Belmont remembered in the second half that they beat this same team by 42 points earlier in the year.
Big 12 CORRECT
There are five locks to make the big dance, and I don’t see any real shockers coming up from the bottom of the pack in this league. Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas State, and Iowa State are all locks for March Madness, and I see the winner be one of these five.
Odds to win the tournament: Kansas 45%, Missouri 25%, Baylor 20%, Kansas State 5%, Iowa State 5%
My pick: Missouri
Result: Missouri is looking good heading in to the tournament. Might be poised for a deep run.
Big East INCORRECT
The Big East is weaker than most years, and they will still get 20 different teams in the dance. Syracuse has rolled over this league in the regular season, but they haven’t played the toughest schedule. I have a real good feeling that they are not going to win this tournament. Chance for a marginal team to sneak in? Uconn? Pitt? WVU?
Odds to win the tournament: Syracuse 40%, Georgetown 25%, Marquette 15%, Notre Dame 10%, Louisville 5%, Cincinnati 4%, WVU 1% (You can’t count these guys out in the tournament)
My pick: Georgetown
Result: Louisville held off Cincinnati to win the final. I knew a marginal team could win this tournament. I just wasn't sure which one.
Big Sky CORRECT
There are two teams that stand out above the rest in this one bid conference. Montana and Weber State split in the regular season, and they are on a collision course for a pivotal rubber match in the championship.
Odds to win the tournament: Montana 65%, Weber State 35%
My pick: Montana
Result: Montana blew Weber State out of the water in the finals. This team is looking strong going in to the tournament. Not one I would want to face in the first round.
Big South CORRECT
There are only four teams left in this tournament after a few upsets. NC-Asheville is facing off against Charleston Southern in the tournament semifinals. The winner of that will most likely go to the big dance.
Odds to win the tournament: NC-Asheville 65%, Charleston Southern 20%, Winthrop 10%, VMI 5%
My pick: NC-Asheville
Result: NC-Asheville rolled to a victory over an inferior VMI team that had no business being in the championship game. They had a nice run, but the better team made the bid dance.
Big Ten INCORRECT
This conference is wide open and really good. That makes for a really fun tournament with no clear-cut front-runner. It seems like every team in the top three has had a chance to pull away, yet no one can take control.
Odds to win the tournament: Michigan State 35%, Ohio State 25%, Michigan 15%, Indiana 10%, Wisconsin 10%, Purdue 5%.
My pick: Ohio State
Result: Ohio State lost to Michigan State in the finals. Top two teams battled it out, and I picked the wrong one. I was close though.
Big West CORRECT
This is Long Beach State’s bid to lose. They have been men amongst boys in this conference so far, and it would be a shame to see them lose this automatic bid. They have a shot to get an at large with a few early wins against Pitt and Xavier, but they really need to win this tournament. They could really make a run in March, too.
Odds to win the tournament: Long Beach St 80%, UCSB 15%, CS Fullerton 5%
My pick: Long Beach St.
Result: This was a pretty easy pick. I feel bad taking credit for this one, but a win is a win.
Conference USA INCORRECT
Memphis is clearly the front-runner in this league, but Southern Mississippi and Tulsa have outside shots at this bid. Memphis and Southern Miss have both done enough to make the big dance, but both will be hungry to make sure there are no doubts they are in on Selection Sunday.
Odds to win the tournament: Memphis 65%, Southern Miss 25%, Tulsa 10%
My pick: Going out on a limb… Southern Miss
Result: Southern Miss was upset by Marshall. Then Marshall was blown out by Memphis.
Colonial INCORRECT
This is a really good conference that deserves a couple of bids. Drexel and VCU are at the top and they are a combined 15-1 since February 1st. I am a big advocate of taking teams that are playing well from smaller conferences over crappy big conference schools who are .500 (cough cough Big East cough cough).
Odds to win the tournament: Drexel 35%, VCU 35%, Old Dominion 15%, George Mason 15%
My pick: Drexel
Result: This was a close championship game between the champ, VCU, and Drexel. These were my top two teams, so it is fitting that they faced off. VCU was tremendous for the first 35 minutes and built a double digit lead. Drexel really came on in the last five minutes to cut the game to one point and eventually lost bye three.
Horizon INCORRECT
The top 6 seeds are left in this tournament, and there is some potential here for some upsets. No team has really run away with this league, and there are some scary low seeds, like Butler and Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
Odds to win the tournament: Valparaiso 30%, Cleveland State 30%, Detroit 15%, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10%, Butler 10%, Youngstown State 5%
My pick: Upset… Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Result: With my upset pick long gone, Detroit played Valpo for the championship. I was right that there was going to be an upset. I just picked the wrong team. Detroit man-handled Valpo 70-50. Detroit has flashes of greatness, but need more consistency.
Ivy CORRECT
No conference tournament here, but Penn is still alive to steal an automatic bid for the regular season champ. If that does happen (20% chance), I still see Harvard making the big dance. They have shown that they can play with the big boys this season.
My pick: Harvard
Result: Penn lost to Princeton and was unable to force a playoff. Harvard earned their bid, but it feels like they slipped in the backdoor.
MAAC INCORRECT
Iona has had a great year, but they need to win in order to make the tournament. This league just isn’t strong enough to have two bids. With that being said, there isn’t much competition in the league. However, Loyola (MD) and Manhattan have shown they do have the ability to knock off Iona.
Odds to win the tournament: Iona 60%, Loyola (MD), 20%, Manhattan 20%
My pick: Iona
Result: Loyola (MD) pulled out a defensive battle against Fairfield 48-44. While they are in the tournament for the first time in 17 years, it probably won't be for long.
MAC INCORRECT
This is a weak one-bid conference. The best of the group is Akron, but there are several teams that could challenge for the honor of being slaughtered as a 15 seed.
Odds to win the tournament: Akron 35%, Ohio 30%, Buffalo, 25%, Bowling Green 5%, Kent State 5%
My pick: Akron
Result: Ohio fought off Akron to win this tourney. I have a lot of runner-ups in my picks.
MEAC CORRECT
This is an obvious one-bid league with a few intricacies that make it interesting. Most likely the winner will be a 16 seed from this division, and possibly playing for the right to even make the field of 64. Savannah State should be the 1 seed in the tournament, but they have a weak schedule and were unimpressive in their 66-33 loss to Wisconsin. Norfolk State is a good 2 seed and played Marquette to a two-point loss earlier in the year.
Odds to win the tournament: Savannah State 40%, Norfolk State 40%, Delaware State 15%, NC Central 5%
My pick: Norfolk State
Result: The Spartans are going to their first NCAA tournament. Congrats... and congrats to me for picking you.
Missouri Valley INCORRECT
This is a legitimate two-bid conference in which both teams could make some noise in March. That doesn’t mean that a couple of the mid seeds couldn’t get hot and steal a third bid for the league.
Odds to win the tournament: Wichita State 55%, Creighton 25%, Northern Iowa 10%, Missouri St 5%, Evansville 5%
My pick: Wichita State
Result: Creighton needed overtime to beat Illinois State, but they won a close contest. Illinois State ran out of gas in OT, and the 83-79 final was courtesy of three Illinois State three pointers with less than a minute to go that only screwed me over by taking Creighton -5.
Mountain West INCORRECT
These guys have three locks for the tournament with Colorado State so close to making the big dance. That could make Colorado State hungrier than ever in this tournament and very dangerous.
Odds to win the tournament: UNLV 40%, New Mexico 25%, San Diego St. 25%, Colorado State 10%
My pick: UNLV
Result: New Mexico made sure they got into the tournament by knocking off UNLV and San Diego St. You deserve it, and they might be a dangerous team to face in the tourney.
Northeast CORRECT
This is a weaker conference, but there is a possibility for an upset in this league. All three of the top teams have a chance at taking this thing, but Long Island has the advantage of having all of its games at home.
Odds to win the tournament: Long Island 40%, Wagner 40%, Robert Morris 20%
My pick: While I will be rooting for Robert Morris, I am picking Long Island.
Result: I was spot on in this one. Long Island crushed an underdog Robert Morris team. Long Island is a good team, but I don't see them making much noise the rest of March.
Ohio Valley CORRECT
This is Murray State’s bid to lose. They have obviously done enough to get an at-large bid, so with and upset this might be a two bid conference. Who am I kidding? The Racers are a legit sweet 16 team at least.
Odds to win the tournament: Murray State 85%, Tennessee State 10%, Morehead State 5%
My pick: RACERS ALL THE WAY
Result: The championship was much closer than I anticipated against Tennessee State. However the Racers pulled out a close game, which shows promise for that other tournament in March.
Pac-12 INCORRECT
When the conference winner barely gets a single digit seed in March Madness, it shows how weak this league is. I really see the winner of this conference getting an 8 but more likely a 9 seed in the tournament.
Odds to win the tournament: Who cares… but if I have to pick California 30%, Arizona 30%, Washington 30%, Oregon 10%
My pick: To watch any other tournament but this one. If you put a gun to my head… I would say pull the trigger rather than choose one of these craptastic teams. Eh that might be stretching it. I guess California.
Result: Colorado beat Arizona? God this conference sucks. When I pick Cal, they suck. When I pick against Colorado, they show up. Makes no sense, especially since the regular season winner, Washington, didn't even make the big dance.
Patriot CORRECT
Ok now we are talking about a fun small conference to watch. Bucknell is the clear front runner, but Lehigh and American have a legitimate shot at knocking Bucknell off. This league might be small, but they have been dangerous in recent years in the tournament. Just ask Kansas.
Odds to win the tournament: Bucknell 55%, Lehigh 35%, American 10%
My pick: Come on… I am going to Lehigh. I have to show my support.
Result: My boys came through for me. Lehigh never trailed in the game, but Bucknell made some nice runs to keep it close. Don't sleep on Lehigh as a 15 seed... see article above.
SEC INCORRECT
This is a really strong conference that should get about five bids into March Madness. The lower seeds have a chance to make the tournament, but it is going to take a perfect storm to knock Kentucky out of this tournament.
Odds to win the tournament: Kentucky 70%, Florida 15%, Vanderbilt, 10%, Alabama, 5%
My pick: Kentucky
Result: Vanderbilt showed up in the finals and gave Kentucky their second loss of the season. This loss might be enough motivation to propel Kentucky to the Final Four. Watch out for them.
Southern CORRECT
There is a lot of parody in this league, and that makes for a fun tournament to secure the one and only bid. While Davidson is the big name and team to beat here, there are a couple of others with an outside shot (all being from the South division… the North blows. The 1 seed in the North is 6 games under .500).
Odds to win the tournament: Davidson 65%, College of Charleston 15%, Wofford 15%, Georgia Southern 5%
My pick: Davidson
Result: It took Davidson two overtimes, but they finally prevailed against the Catamounts of Western Carolina 93-91. It was really frustrating to watch at times. Davidson would be up by 2 in OT, make a defensive stop, and then chuck up a bad three point attempt on the other end of the court. Kill some clock and take a high percentage shot that late in the game, especially in overtime. They escaped this time, but I don't see them doing anything in the big dance.
Southland INCORRECT
Yes there is a conference called the Southland. You can look it up, but you can trust me… it does exist. Yes the winner will be a 16 seed that loses to Kansas in the first round.
Odds to win the tournament: TX Arlington 45%, Lamar 30%, Stephen F. Austin 10%, UTSA 10%, McNeese State 5%
My pick: TX Arlington
Result: Lamar beat McNeese State. I was way off.
Summit INCORRECT
Ok if you know me, then you know I am a huge Golden Eagles fan. Oral Roberts is a solid team playing in a weaker conference. If they make the dance, they are primed for a first round upset if they get the right match-up. However, South Dakota St has already shown it can beat ORU.
Odds to win the tournament: ORU 45%, South Dakota State 35%, Oakland 10%, North Dakota State 10%
My pick: Oral Roberts
Result: South Dakota State beat Western Illinois in OT 52-50. I though Oral Roberts was the better team, but South Dakota State is a very good team to represent this conference. They should hold their own in the big dance.
Sun Belt INCORRECT
This conference is a one bid league, but it is basically a race between Middle Tennessee State and Denver in my mind.
Odds to win the tournament: Middle Tennessee State 50%, Denver 40%, North Texas 5%, Arkansas Little Rock 3%, LA Lafayette 2%
My pick: Middle Tennessee State
Result: Western Kentucky... You have to love the face that a team with a 15-18 record has a shot in the tournament. Hey they probably have a shot to earn a win in a play-in game. Good for them.
SWAC CORRECT
I love teams that go out and play a difficult schedule in order to get ready for conference play. That is just what Mississippi Valley State has done. After going 1-11 to start the year, they are 17-0 in conference play, which makes them the team to beat.
Odds to win the tournament: Miss. Valley St. 60%, TX Southern 20%, Southern 10%, Alabama St. 5%, Prairie View 5%
My pick: Miss. Valley St.
Result: They ran the regular season and ran the tournament. Nicely done.
WAC INCORRECT
This is a two-team race with a few teams that need a lot of help to challenge. New Mexico State and Nevada are the cream of the crop in this league.
Odds to win the tournament: New Mexico State 40%, Nevada 40%, Utah State 10%, Idaho 5%, Hawaii 5%
My pick: Nevada
Result: New Mexico State crushed Louisiana Tech by 25 to earn this berth. They dominated the WAC.
West Coast INCORRECT
This is a really strong league this year that will probably get 3 bids. St. Mary’s and Gonzaga are locks but Loyola Marymount is coming on strong. We can’t count out BYU either.
Odds to win the tournament: St. Mary’s 40%, Gonzaga 35%, BYU 15%, Loyola Marymount 10%
My pick: Gonzaga
Result: This was a close game that was well worth watching. Both teams are safely in the tournament, but they each left everything on the court in this OT thriller in Vegas. Gonzaga needed a three to time the game up with less than ten second to go, but St. Mary's proved too much for them in OT. The final score was 78-74, but both teams looked ready for March Madness.
I hope these conference previews have been fun to read and helped you a bit with your picks. Have fun watching all the drama play out!
WHICH SEC TEAM IS
MOST POISED TO MAKE
A RUN IN TOURNEY PLAY?
There might be a few surprises
By: Justin Borum 02-24-12
5. Mississippi State
As much as I would like to put Tennessee on here, the realistic choice is the team that has a 19-9 current record, and beat Tennessee, Alabama, and Vanderbilt. I know these wins might not be as impressive as Tennessee's two against Florida, but 19-9 looks alot better than 15-13. I'm not saying Tennessee can't replace MSU in the next few weeks with a win over Vandy and a strong showing in the SEC Tournament. To me Mississippi State is the team that I can't really figure out. They looked like they were going to hand Kentucky its second loss of the season the other night, but it looked like they thought the game was over at halftime. I've saw them really explode at times this year for 20-0 runs, and I've also saw them quit playing. That big Sidney guy in the middle could be the best player in the SEC if he wanted to be. I know it probably doesn't matter because both teams are so inconsistent, but I bet MSU fans stay as frustrated as I do with my Vols.
4. Vanderbilt
Is it just me, or has Vanderbilt's basketball program flown under the radar the last few years and developed into an every year tournament team? I remember a time when SEC opponents chalked up a win against Vandy just as effortlessly in basketball as in football. In other words, Kevin Stallings deserves as much credit as any coach in the country as a program builder. Jeffery Taylor averages almost 18 points per game and they have the league's 3rd best offense, so they can score the basketball. Unfortunatley, for Commodores fans, their hopes for tournament success usually die prematurely in the first few rounds. I don't neccessarily think they're any better this year than those years they lost early as a four seed, but don't think for a minute their incapable of tournament success at some point.
3. Florida
The fact that they're the best shooting team in the league says volumes about their chances. I personally believe they rely too much on the trey instead of feeding Dwight Howard's look alike, Patrick Young. I think it's safe to say they've beaten everyone they were suppose to this year with the exception of Tennessee. As a Vol fan, nothing pumps me up more than watching our average team win in Gainesville. The fact Florida didn't put up enough of a fight against Kentucky also is pretty shocking (Lost by 20). Although they've been pretty steady and consistent this year, I think Florida will be one of those 3 seeds that could possibly take an early exit next month.
2. Alabama
I know what you're thinking. They might not even make the NCAA tournament. They're currently tied with Tennessee for 4th and have a 7-6 conference record. Alabama is playing its best basketball right now without three of their best players, including their top two scorers. They dominated Tennessee last week and Arkansas never came close on Wednesday. Alabama is being held together by Anthony Grant, who is perhaps the best coach in the league. I commend him for his infamous "character is a choice" approach with his kids. Before he was at Alabama, many people don't realize he was Florida's choice to suceed Donovan when he was led to the NBA for one day. Year in and year out, they always seem like the toughest team in the conference; mentally and physically. The reason the SEC did away with divisions (East and West) in basketball is because they won the West last yeat and didn't make the Big Dance. This team has a proven coach, they're hungry, and they have their best players returning from suspension soon. We'll see what Grant can do with them.
1. Kentucky
The problem that the critics have all said about Calipari's one-and-done approach is that it fails to build continuity and a team that plays together to win a championship. John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins showed up to Rupp every game with the hopes of NBA GM's tuning in to watch them showcase thier talent. Calapari would parade down the sidelines of the court trying to find a camera so he could increase his coaching intensity......... I've watched many of their games this year and I don't get that perception about this team (except for Cal of course). I see a team that's committed to playing defense, hustle, and intensity. Though they don't necessarily have any great offensive star, this Anthony Davis kid is the next Marcus Camby. He dominates games with his long frame, shot blocking, and athletic ability. Terrence Jones has been one of the top 5 best players in the country for two years now. I think it's sad to say, but I think Kentucky might be hoisting its 8th National Championship banner this year.
As much as I would like to put Tennessee on here, the realistic choice is the team that has a 19-9 current record, and beat Tennessee, Alabama, and Vanderbilt. I know these wins might not be as impressive as Tennessee's two against Florida, but 19-9 looks alot better than 15-13. I'm not saying Tennessee can't replace MSU in the next few weeks with a win over Vandy and a strong showing in the SEC Tournament. To me Mississippi State is the team that I can't really figure out. They looked like they were going to hand Kentucky its second loss of the season the other night, but it looked like they thought the game was over at halftime. I've saw them really explode at times this year for 20-0 runs, and I've also saw them quit playing. That big Sidney guy in the middle could be the best player in the SEC if he wanted to be. I know it probably doesn't matter because both teams are so inconsistent, but I bet MSU fans stay as frustrated as I do with my Vols.
4. Vanderbilt
Is it just me, or has Vanderbilt's basketball program flown under the radar the last few years and developed into an every year tournament team? I remember a time when SEC opponents chalked up a win against Vandy just as effortlessly in basketball as in football. In other words, Kevin Stallings deserves as much credit as any coach in the country as a program builder. Jeffery Taylor averages almost 18 points per game and they have the league's 3rd best offense, so they can score the basketball. Unfortunatley, for Commodores fans, their hopes for tournament success usually die prematurely in the first few rounds. I don't neccessarily think they're any better this year than those years they lost early as a four seed, but don't think for a minute their incapable of tournament success at some point.
3. Florida
The fact that they're the best shooting team in the league says volumes about their chances. I personally believe they rely too much on the trey instead of feeding Dwight Howard's look alike, Patrick Young. I think it's safe to say they've beaten everyone they were suppose to this year with the exception of Tennessee. As a Vol fan, nothing pumps me up more than watching our average team win in Gainesville. The fact Florida didn't put up enough of a fight against Kentucky also is pretty shocking (Lost by 20). Although they've been pretty steady and consistent this year, I think Florida will be one of those 3 seeds that could possibly take an early exit next month.
2. Alabama
I know what you're thinking. They might not even make the NCAA tournament. They're currently tied with Tennessee for 4th and have a 7-6 conference record. Alabama is playing its best basketball right now without three of their best players, including their top two scorers. They dominated Tennessee last week and Arkansas never came close on Wednesday. Alabama is being held together by Anthony Grant, who is perhaps the best coach in the league. I commend him for his infamous "character is a choice" approach with his kids. Before he was at Alabama, many people don't realize he was Florida's choice to suceed Donovan when he was led to the NBA for one day. Year in and year out, they always seem like the toughest team in the conference; mentally and physically. The reason the SEC did away with divisions (East and West) in basketball is because they won the West last yeat and didn't make the Big Dance. This team has a proven coach, they're hungry, and they have their best players returning from suspension soon. We'll see what Grant can do with them.
1. Kentucky
The problem that the critics have all said about Calipari's one-and-done approach is that it fails to build continuity and a team that plays together to win a championship. John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins showed up to Rupp every game with the hopes of NBA GM's tuning in to watch them showcase thier talent. Calapari would parade down the sidelines of the court trying to find a camera so he could increase his coaching intensity......... I've watched many of their games this year and I don't get that perception about this team (except for Cal of course). I see a team that's committed to playing defense, hustle, and intensity. Though they don't necessarily have any great offensive star, this Anthony Davis kid is the next Marcus Camby. He dominates games with his long frame, shot blocking, and athletic ability. Terrence Jones has been one of the top 5 best players in the country for two years now. I think it's sad to say, but I think Kentucky might be hoisting its 8th National Championship banner this year.
